Publicações

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar as mudanças da cobertura da terra, na Área de Proteção Ambiental da Baixada Maranhense, inserida em uma Fronteira Agropecuária da Amazônia Brasileira, considerando os anos de 2000, 2010 e 2020. A metodologia exploratória foi utilizada nesta pesquisa, apoiada na modelagem dinâmica espacial, onde se realizou etapas de organização de dados, cálculo de taxas de transição, geração de pesos de evidência de variáveis explicativas, calibração do modelo e validação. Os principais resultados mostram que: a) houve redução nas taxas de transição entre os anos avaliados; b) as variáveis escolhidas permitiram alcançar um índice de similaridade de até 73%; c) a principal classe de destino das transições foi a Pastagem Manejada. Conclui-se que as variáveis escolhidas nesta pesquisa permitiram a construção de um modelo condizente com as transformações nessa fronteira amazônica, seja através da lógica de transformação histórica, seja através dos programas de monitoramento da Amazônia. Este trabalho subsidia a elaboração de cenários alternativos para a área de estudo, tendo em vista a confiabilidade alcançada pelo modelo.

Since 2022, we have mapped native vegetation removal for all Brazilian biomes within the scope of the PRODES Project. In this study, our main objective was to present interpretation criteria for feature detection used to identify natural vegetation removal throughout the Caatinga. To this end, we created a catalog of typical patterns that can be used for supervised and unsupervised deforestation mapping. We used PRODES data from 2023 year’s PRODES Caatinga based on the composition of top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance images from MSI/Sentinel-2 satellite. The original reflectance data was used to generate false color images in the following combination: band 8 (Red), band 11 (Green) and band 4 (Blue). This image was then visually classified into different natural vegetation removal classes. These are good examples of what PRODES interpreters have encountered throughout this diverse region and can help any future mapping efforts of the Caatinga.

The steppic savanna term was originally employed to classify a single type of tropical vegetation in Africa, but it has been expanded by the pioneering RADAMBRASIL authors and it is currently used to classify the vegetation of the Caatinga in northeastern Brazil, and in other vegetation types with similar characteristics in the Amazon and Chaco/Pantanal areas. Here, we propose that the use of the name steppic savanna to describe the vegetation of the Caatinga is semantically and structurally incorrect since its definitions conflict between the main type (steppic savanna) and its subclasses (e.g., forested steppic savanna), rendering them nonsensical. This classification system is insufficient to account for the vegetation types observable through current remote sensing technology and neither does it correspond to what has been described by diverse field ecologists working at the Caatinga since the early 20th century. Therefore, we suggest that its use should be abandoned by the Brazilian governmental agencies and by the scientific community at large in favor of more realistic systems to inform local representatives and scientists interested in studying this important and often neglected region.

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

As mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra na Amazônia têm resultado em constantes perdas e degradação florestal, que comprometem a capacidade do ecossistema fornecer seus serviços. Nesse contexto, este estudo objetivou analisar as mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra, nos serviços ecossistêmicos hídricos e no clima, e os efeitos na saúdee qualidade de vida das populações da municipalidade mato-grossense de Juína, cidade-polo situada no arco do desmatamento e com fortes pressões ambientais. A classificação do uso e cobertura da terra foi obtida por meio dos dados disponibilizados pelo Projeto MapBiomas para o período de 1985 a 2021. Dados de serviços ecossistêmicos foram analisados por técnicas de estatística descritiva e pelo teste de tendência de Mann-Kendall e de Sen ́s slope. O estudo estimou perda florestal de 16%, com uma tendência dediminuição de 11.348,6 ha.ano-1, enquanto todos os usos antrópicos apresentaram tendência significativa de aumento. O maior destaque foi para as áreas de pastagens, que ocuparam 15% da área total do município, com uma tendência de aumento de 10.967,6 ha.ano-1. Constatou-se também tendênciassignificativasde redução da disponibilidade hídrica eda precipitação, de aumento da temperatura do arede aumento das taxas de mortalidade por doenças circulatórias e respiratórias. Osresultadosdestes estudosreforçam a necessidade de uma abordagemintegrativa, interdisciplinar e intersetorial que transcenda as fronteiras tradicionais do conhecimento entre os setores de saúde e meio ambiente, implementando políticas públicas que integrem a saúdeecossistêmica e humana e considerem os serviços ecossistêmicoscomo determinantes em saúde.

O turismo mundial atingiu 1,5 bilhão de visitantes internacionais em 2019, confirmando a força deste fenômeno social. Entretanto, as mudanças climáticas são uma ameaça global para o turismo, principalmente para os segmentos que dependem do clima como o de sol, praia e mar. Projeções mostram que os eventos naturais extremos devem aumentar em frequência e intensidade, provocando inundações repentinas, deslizamentos de terra, vendavais, bem como escassez de água. Poucos estudos avaliam a vulnerabilidade e a resiliência do turismo em relação a tais eventos e os que existem, apresentam perspectiva reducionista, com abordagem em partes e não em todo o sistema turístico. Neste contexto, este trabalho objetiva desenvolver um modelo genérico e inovador que integra a abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa para criar um índice de avaliação da vulnerabilidade e resiliência dos destinos turísticos costeiros em relação às mudanças climáticas, com foco em todo o sistema de turismo em nível de destino. Como resultado, 55 indicadores são apresentados para compor as nove dimensões do Índice TurClima, uma ferramenta promissora para auxiliar qualquer destino costeiro a mapear os fatores que causam vulnerabilidade (limitações) e aumentam a resiliência (oportunidades para adaptação) ante um clima em constante e rápida alteração.

No setor de energia, o trilema é caracterizado como sendo as correlações entre segurança energética, equidade energética e sustentabilidade ambiental. Devido à crescente preocupação com relação às mudanças ambientais globais, o peso atribuído ao pilar ambiental tem aumentado e criado um novo ponto de equilíbrio para o trilema. Isso tem pressionado a transição energética, embora as ações de muitas nações ainda não estejam alinhadas com a urgência ambiental atual. Com base em uma revisão de literatura, este artigo apresenta uma caracterização do trilema da energia, visando entender como as mudanças ambientais têm o impactado na sociedade, considerando tanto a perspectiva global como brasileira. É possível concluir que as relações entre os temas que compõem o trilema de energia são complexas e devem ser balanceadas refletindo as características, necessidades e disponibilidades tecnológicas de cada região, não sendo plausível uma solução única global para esse balanço.

This study investigated the pattern distribution of fires in the Brazilian Amazon and their relationship with deforested areas from 2003 to 2022. The primary objective was to analyze fire spots spatial and temporal variation. First, we examine whether open vegetation (non-forest areas) in the Amazon exhibit a higher density of fire spots than forested areas. Second, we analyze how the density of fire spots in deforested areas varies with the time elapsed since deforestation. Using recent fire monitoring data and satellite imagery, the study employed statistical techniques to reveal significant patterns and trends. Our findings indicate that fire spot density is associated with deforestation in forested lands; however, this relationship does not hold for non-forest ecosystems. Fire spots are more frequent in years with higher deforestation rates, exhibiting similar trends in both forested and non-forested areas. Nevertheless, fire spot density is generally higher in originally forested lands subjected to anthropogenic activities compared to non-forest areas experiencing similar disturbances. In contrast, fires are more common in non-forest ecosystems with minimal or no disturbance compared to forested areas. Additionally, we observe variations in fire spot density over time in deforested areas, with higher densities occurring in the year the forest was cleared. In non-forest vegetation, the frequency of fires is similar in natural and anthropized areas, but both are lower compared to areas where vegetation has been recently suppressed. This study enhances our understanding of the environmental impacts of deforestation and provides valuable insights for formulating management and conservation policies in the Amazon.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the Sao Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

This review discusses observed hydroclimatic trends and future climate projections for the Amazon. Warming over this region is a fact, but the magnitude of the warming trend varies depending on the datasets and length of the analyzed period. The warming trend has been more evident since 1980 and has further enhanced since 2000. Long-term trends in climate and hydrology are assessed. Various studies have reported an intensification of the hydrological cycle and a lengthening of the dry season in the southern Amazon. Changes in floods and droughts, mainly due to natural climate variability and land use change, are also assessed. For instance, in the first half of the 20th century, extreme flood events occurred every 20 years. Since 2000, there has been one severe flood every four years. During the last four decades, the northern Amazon has experienced enhanced convective activity and rainfall, in contrast to decreases in convection and rainfall in the southern Amazon. Climate change in the Amazon will have impacts at regional and global scales. Significant reductions in rainfall are projected for the eastern Amazon.

Northeast Brazil (NEB) is one of the driest regions in the country, with some areas, such as the sertão, receiving less than 400 mm/year. Despite this aridity, NEB is infuenced by various synoptic-scale systems that contribute to intense rainfall events throughout the year. This study aimed to identify and analyze the synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in NEB. There were selected four events that occurred in the region over the past eight years and signifcantly impacted metropolitan areas. Two cases occurred in eastern, one in southern, and one in northern sector of the study region. The results revealed that these extreme precipitation events were associated with diferent synoptic-scale systems. The easterly wave disturbance (EWD), upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex (UTCV), South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). EWD and UTCV were primarily responsible for the two eastern cases. The SACZ infuenced the case that occurred in the southern, whereas the Atlantic ITCZ played a role in in northern case. Our fndings indicate that these events are driven primarily by intense upper-level divergence and substantial moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, leading to signifcant moisture convergence. This study provides crucial insights into the factors driving extreme precipitation events in NEB, which can aid in validating numerical weather prediction models.