Publicações

Modelos de biosfera terrestre são os componentes dos modelos climáticos que simulam a interação entre a biosfera e superfície dos continentes e a atmosfera. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é avaliar a sensibilidade dos biomas Amazônia e Cerrado à seca, através de simulações com a versão pontual do modelo de biosfera terrestre InLand/IBIS, o qual representa um modelo de quarta geração e integra a maioria dos processos superficiais relevantes para o sistema climático, contribuindo com informações sobre como a vegetação tropical utiliza e dimensiona as trocas de carbono em condições de seca no sistema solo-planta-atmosfera. Foram realizadas simulações na Amazônia, com as condições da torre do sítio experimental k83 (0303’01”S, 5456’W), localizado na Floresta Nacional do Tapajós. Simulações no Cerrado não foram possíveis de serem realizadas nesta etapa, devido à ausência de dados observacionais de entrada para o modelo. As simulações com o modelo InLand foram realizadas de forma que a simulação (1) utilizou a configuração default, ou seja, condição inicial do modelo, a simulação (2) alterando os parâmetros de distribuição de raízes (B2), simulação (3) alterando a capacidade máxima da enzima RuBisCo (Vmáx) e simulação (4) alterando a concentração de CO2. Vale ressaltar que as simulações foram realizadas considerando a vegetação dinâmica, no qual o índice de área foliar, altura dos tipos funcionais de plantas e outras características fenológicas da vegetação são determinadas dinamicamente em resposta às forçantes ambientais. Os resultados demonstram que a taxa do aumento do valor de Vmáx de 60 mol m-2s-1 para 120 mol m-2s-1, influenciou diretamente os valores de produtividade aumentando a fixação de carbono pelas plantas ao longo de todo período simulado, mesmo em meses de menor precipitação. Assim, é possível concluir que o modelo consegue aplicar um estresse à planta quando alterado o valor de Vmáx, e que este estresse pode ser manipulado através dos valores de Vmáx utilizado nas simulações. Também foi possível analisar que a produtividade primária bruta (GPP) e produtividade primária líquida (NPP) foram maiores quando se considerou uma atmosfera enriquecida com CO2. Desta forma, a representação da troca líquida (NEE) entre a atmosfera e as plantas apresentou-se como um sumidouro de carbono quando considerada CO2 = 700ppm e uma fonte de carbono para atmosfera quando considerada CO2= 300ppm. Em relação à alteração das raízes, quando considerada uma distribuição mais uniforme da raiz (B2=0.980), o estresse hídrico é maior em relação utilização (B2=0.999). Isto ocorre, pois quando utilizado B2=0.999, a maior parte das raízes está alocada nas camadas mais profundas, as quais justamente possuem maior quantidade de água, e contribuem para a manutenção da produtividade durante o período de menor precipitação. Desta forma, é possível concluir nesta primeira etapa que o parâmetro B2 é um dos parâmetros capazes de melhorar a representação dos fluxos de carbono na Amazônia.

According to the State Program of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought (PAE/CE), the State of Ceara-Brazil has three centers configured with Areas Susceptible to Desertification which are the Hinterlands of Inhamuns, the Hinterlands Irauçuba and Center North and the Hinterlands of Medium Jaguaribe, encompassing twelve municipalities and covering a total area of 26,432,65km2. It is known that the problem of desertification in State of Ceara acquired more notoriety from the Arid Project which subsidized actions such as the elaboration of the National Program of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought. Since then, although with a smaller intensity than expected, noted that strategies to combat the phenomenon is being implemented in the State. In this context, the objective of this study is to conduct a systematization of the major Plans, Policies and Programs (PPP) in the State of Ceara in the period from 2004 to 2012. To this end, documentary and bibliographic searches were carried out. e systematization was made taking as parameters: objective of intervention, implementation year, managing agency, participation of society, geographical area, obstacles faced and benefits from the results obtained. It was found that the low participation, the supervision of PPP and reduced integration between policies are factors that limit the implementation and the control of actions.

This paper shows the application of HAND model in a watershed located in Cerrado environment, in a macro and micro scale. HAND model was applied used diferentes thresolds and the results were classified according to four classes with hydrological significance. The HAND was calibrated based on the drainage network and the measurements performed in the groundwater field. In the small watershed 26 piezometers were installed throughout the basin for groundwater monitoring. The HAND model showed viable to represent the basin drainage, located in Cerrado environment, with most areas with high altitudes compared to the hydrography of the ANA. A problem was that in some regions the length of the drainage was less than the real, defining points of source in inappropriate places, but its a small error if we consider the magnitude of the watershed.

It is well known that most natural disasters, such as landslides, floods and droughts, are directly related to climate variability and particularly to its extremes. Several climate change scenarios indicate that the Semiarid of Brazil is very vulnerable. Land use and land cover changes in the semiarid region have been accelerated in the last decades due to both climatic and human factors. Due to more than 5 centuries of disorderly occupation and the fragility of the ecosystem, soil fertility and biological productivity in the semiarid Northeast of Brazil have been severely affected. Therefore it is essential to elaborate climate change mitigation plans and adaptation actions. To understand landscape changes is challenging because ecosystem drivers takes place at a wide spatial and temporal scales. This work will discuss conceptual and methodological bases for an early detection system of drought and desertification. For this purpose, a geographical database (scale 1:500.000) with physical, environmental and socioeconomic information are being developed, allowing the interaction of drought and desertification indicators. The early warning system will integrate remote sensing data and weather forecasts that will enable a continuous assessment of the most susceptible areas, improving the understanding of the combined effects of drought and desertification.

Forest degradation is a threat looms over Amazon forest. Detection and Recognition of Forest Degradation patterns are important to address forest state. This study presents the asset of application of a novel free system for spatial data mining, called GeoDMA, for distinguishing patterns in forest degradation in Brazilian Amazon. Types were related to progressive events of decreasing forest canopy. An analysis of land cover dynamic, from satellite image time series, is also showed. Method was based on cell database construction, landscape metrics and data mining techniques. Cell-based classification, provided by GeoDMA, proved to be useful in distinguishing forest degradation patterns. Errors were mostly caused by spatial and spectral resolution constraints of Landsat images (30m) than to the rules used to perform classification. Cell data base construction with resolution of 1km2 was suitable to represent forest degradation typologies. However, we recommend future studies to test finer resolution. Time analyses interval of three years between series data was not appropriate to represent land cover dynamics. Fast transition between forest and clear-cut requires analysis at annual-basis to better determine and detect forest degradation and their trajectories. Patterns have found to São Félix do Xingu may not be enough to represent all the patterns one can distinguish in Amazon region.

The SONDA network aims at acquiring, storing and delivering free access to high quality ground data, which can be used as benchmark to improve and validate numerical models used to solar and wind resource assessment or forecast. Currently, SONDA network has 18 measurement sites located throughout the Brazilian Territory in order to representative data from all typical regional climates in the continental area of the country. Most of the measurement sites are collecting data since 2004. Both the metadata and ground measurements are available at the INTERNET website (sonda.ccst.inpe.br) for free download. All equipment and sensors are first class as recommended by WMO and MEASNET. To ease its use, the solarimetric and meteorological data has been converted into a common text format that can be imported by any commercial spreadsheet application or read by a simple numerical code in FORTRAN or other programming language. All data sets have been evaluated by a quality control procedure, similar to the recommended by WMO for BSRN network. Four out of 18 sites are collecting data for wind speed and direction in 3 heights above the ground together with global, diffuse and direct solar irradiation data at the surface. Solarimetric and meteorological data acquired at these four sites are included in the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) managed by WMO. Also, aerosol optical thickness data is acquired at these four sites and it is made available at the AERONET website. The SONDA database has been contributing significantly to the numerical model improvement and confidence evaluation of the solar and wind energy resource data provided by them. Temporal data series acquired in SONDA network is providing important information to the next edition for Brazilian Atlas for Solar Energy that will be published by INPE in 2014.

In Brazil, Human Rights to Adequate Food was institutionalized in January 2010, incorporating adequate feed within the Citizens Social Rights as part of Brazilian Federal Constitution. Access to adequate food that guarantees and promotes such rights has been limited due to socioeconomic issues and environmental local and global changes. Expansion of cities in size and number, as well as population growth concentrated in urban areas might directly affect land availability for agriculture, reducing viable spaces near cities to produce fresh food in order to respond to the rise on demand for food by urban consumers. Vegetables are vital for a healthy human diet, and long market chains represent a damaging step between production and consumption, resulting in great losses due to high perishability, raising prices and difficulting access to food. Thus, the identification of near consumers areas suitable for vegetables´ production, can subsidize public policies and be part of adaptation mechanisms to achieve urban population food security in future. This work aimed to apply GIS techniques to create a map of potential areas suitable for horticulture in the micro region of São José dos Campos, Brazil. We adopted biophysical, infrastructural and spatial zoning data combined by spatial analyses techniques and tools available in SPRING 4.3.3 software. The results provide a basis to support discussion among stakeholders by showing potential areas where horticulture could be developed, and that should be tackled as priority areas to improve the nutritional security for the citizens in this region in near future.

This paper is a temporal analysis of the silviculture in Vale do Paraíba Paulista – one of the most industrialised regions of Brazil, where large patches of Mata Atlântica are found – and its consequences to the local watershed. Initially, we obtained LANDSAT 5 images from 1995 and 2010. Once selected, the images were processed and classified using the Geographic Information System – SPRING. The images were divided into three major classes, using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), non-forest, forest and transition, in order to facilitate the classification. Once the images have been edited and remapped, we obtained land use and land cover maps 1995 e 2010. After that, Digital Elevation Models were generated with the TerraHydro software, in this, three classes were obtained: Lowlands, Hillsides and Hilltops. With ArcMap, intersections between silviculture areas and Digital Elevation classes obtained with TerraHydro were done. Then, we examined data from the IBGE Agricultural Census, with the data obtained by classifying land use and land cover. There was an increase in the area covered by silvicultures by the order of 42 thousand hectares to more than 60 thousand. The planting on hilltops increased from 25% to 27% and silviculture in hillsides remained with 47% of the total, while planting in lowland areas has reduced proportionately (2%).

O estudo do comportamento hidrológico sob possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas na Bacia do Tapajós é de grande importância uma vez que seu regime é de interesse não só à geração hidrelétrica, mas por sua função ecológica e influência no clima local, como sub-bacia do Amazonas. Neste estudo foram avaliados os impactos no regime hidrológico da bacia do Tapajós em função das projeções climatológicas até o final do século. Foi utilizado o Modelo de Grandes Bacias do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (MGB-INPE), modelo hidrológico que divide a bacia em células regulares. Inclui os processos de evapotranspiração, balanço hídrico do solo, escoamento subterrâneo e superficial, simulados ao passo diário. O MGB-INPE foi alimentado com dados meteorológicos observados para sua calibração, comparando a simulação com descargas observadas. Necessária a entrada de variáveis atmosféricas como precipitação, temperatura do ar e velocidade do vento, foram utilizados, para as projeções futuras, os dados gerados pelos Modelos de Circulação Global MIROC-5, CSIRO-Mk3, IPSL-CM5A-LR e HadGEM2-ES, e o downscaling dinâmico desenvolvido com o Modelo de Circulação Regional Eta-CPTEC. O modelo apresentou performance adequada na simulação histórica, alcançando índice Nash-Sutcliffe de ao menos 0,63. Todos os cenários projetam aumento da temperatura e diminuição da umidade relativa, mas há diferenças entre a precipitação esperada, sendo as projeções do modelo Eta mais extremas que a dos GCMs. A anomalia da vazão do Rio Tapajós mostra-se relacionada com a da precipitação, atingindo, no pior cenário, diminuição de 79% no final do século. Há uma importante variabilidade entre os experimentos com os diferentes modelos atmosféricos. Em geral, as projeções indicam anomalia de -46% da vazão média anual no período de 2071 a 2099, contra +17% resultante das projeções do GCM IPSL, e -55% da Q95, contra -92% resultante das projeções do cenário ETA40km high. A redução das vazões se apresenta de forma mais intensa que as anomalias de precipitação. Há indício de mudanças no regime hidrológico na bacia estudada, como o aumento da evapotranspiração, embora sejam recomendados posteriores estudos com considerações adicionais na entrada de dados, como possíveis mudanças no uso do solo.

Esse trabalho tem como foco elaborar uma pesquisa utilizando como meio os desafios científicos para alunos de ensino fundamental e médio. Com esses desafios fornecer ferramentas pedagógicas e didáticas aos professores do ensino de ciências das escolas de Ensino Fundamental e Médio, envolvendo-os (alunos e professores) com os diversos ramos da ciência e tecnologia, no caso concreto com as ciências espaciais. Constatamos um déficit na qualificação e número de profissionais na área de pesquisa no Brasil, ainda que esse número esteja melhorando gradativamente, se faz necessário encontrar características pedagógicas que realmente transforme essa realidade brasileira. Os desafios científicos podem contribuir com essa questão, auxiliando aos professores no desenvolvimento próprio, promovendo uma formação continuada e também fornecendo a eles novas ferramentas didáticas para o ensino e o aprendizado de ciências. Melhorar a educação básica talvez seja um dos primeiros passos para melhorar a formação de um futuro pesquisador e, portanto, essa etapa da vida acadêmica de um pesquisador deve receber uma especial atenção.