Publicações

Intra-seasonal variability of smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) and downwelling solar irradiance at the surface during the 2002 biomass burning season in South America was modeled using the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS). Measurements of AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and solar irradiance at the surface from the Solar Radiation Network (SolRad-NET) were used to evaluate model results. In general, the major features associated with AOD evolution over the southern part of the Amazon Basin and cerrado ecosystem are captured by the model. The main discrepancies were found for high aerosol loading events. In the northeastern portion of the Amazon Basin the model systematically underestimated AOD. This is likely due to the cloudy nature of the region, preventing accurate detection of the fire spots used in the emission model. Moreover, measured AOD were very often close to background conditions and emissions other than smoke were not considered in the simulation. Therefore, under the background scenario, one would expect the model to underestimate AOD. The issue of high aerosol loading events in the southern part of the Amazon and cerrado is also discussed in the context of emission shortcomings. The Cuiabá cerrado site was the only one where the highest quality AERONET data were unavailable. Thus, lower quality data were used. Root-mean-square-error (RMSE) between the model and observations decreased from 0.48 to 0.17 when extreme AOD events (AOD550 nm ≥ 1.0) and Cuiabá were excluded from analysis. Downward surface solar irradiance comparisons also followed similar trends when extremes AOD were excluded. This highlights the need to improve the modelling of the regional smoke plume in order to enhance the accuracy of the radiative energy budget. Aerosol optical model based on the mean intensive properties of smoke from the southern part of the Amazon Basin produced a radiative forcing efficiency (RFE) of −158 W m−2/AOD550 nm at noon. This value is in between −154 W m−2/AOD550 nm and −187 W m−2/AOD550 nm, the range obtained when spatial varying optical models were considered. The average 24 h surface forcing over the biomass burning season varied from −55 W m−2 close to smoke sources in the southern part of the Amazon Basin and cerrado to −10 W m−2 in remote regions of the Southeast Brazilian coast.

Although only a small amount of the Earths water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

A set of freshwater fisheries management institutions in the central Brazilian Amazon leads us to propose an expansion of the common pool resource (CPR) management models developed by Ostrom. We analyze the origins and effectiveness of a community-based CPR system that has emerged despite several features that are, in Ostrom’s view, barriers to local institutional development: the fish populations are migratory rather than stationary, spatial boundaries are ambiguous rather than fixed, and state support of local management is weak or non-existent rather than strong. We argue that cultural and political factors, which are given less emphasis in Ostrom’s model, may help explain how these communities overcome barriers to collective action. We draw parallels between freshwater systems and Marine Protected Areas and discuss implications for local resource management.

The main purpose of this study is to perform a nitrogen budget survey for the entire Brazilian Amazon region. The main inputs of nitrogen to the region are biological nitrogen fixation occurring in tropical forests (7.7 Tg.yr -1), and biological nitrogen fixation in agricultural lands mainly due to the cultivation of a large area with soybean, which is an important nitrogen-fixing crop (1.68 Tg.yr -1). The input due to the use of N fertilizers (0.48 Tg.yr -1) is still incipient compared to the other two inputs mentioned above. The major output flux is the riverine flux, equal to 2.80 Tg.yr -1 and export related to foodstuff, mainly the transport of soybean and beef to other parts of the country. The continuous population growth and high rate of urbanization may pose new threats to the nitrogen cycle of the region through the burning of fossil fuel and dumping of raw domestic sewage in rivers and streams of the region.

During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern Amazonia during the austral summer of 20082009 swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last 107 years. During the 20082009 hydrological year, the rainy season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ during MayJune 2009, due to the warmer than normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989 and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries, which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an extreme flood.

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and São Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.

We review the carbon balance and trends over the last decades, as well as their determinants, for South America as part of a catalogue of similar regional syntheses covering the globe for the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Pro- 5 cesses) effort. South America as a region has attracted the attention of global carbon cycle and climate researchers mainly because of the very large amount of organic carbon stored in its rainforests. Amazonia contains on the order of 95120 PgC in living biomass and additional 160 PgC in soils (Gibbs et al., 2007; Malhi et al., 2006; Saatchi et al., 2011; Jobaggy and Jackson 2000; Appendix 2). To place this in perspective in 10 total this is approximately half of the amount of carbon contained in the atmosphere before the beginning of the industrialization in the 18th century. A substantial fraction of these carbon pools is thus amenable to release to the atmosphere on short timescales (decades) by deforestation. On the other hand, because of their vast size the forests also have the potential to slightly moderate the global carbon problem by taking 15 up carbon and thereby mitigating some emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels. However, this effect will eventually saturate. Hence two main factors will likely dictate future changes in forest biomass. Firstly, the current fast demographic and economic development (e.g., Soares-Filho et al., 2006), and secondly changes in forest biomass and biome boundaries caused by changes in atmospheric gas composition and any 20 associated climate change (e.g., Phillips et al., 2009; Marimon et al., 2006). The development of the region is associated directly with forest destruction mainly for agricultural use (e.g., DeFries et al., 2010), while changes brought about by altered climate and atmospheric composition on forests are subtler. Specifically, increases in carbon dioxide concentration and/or changes in direct light may stimulate tree growth 25 and in turn rainforest biomass gains (Lloyd and Farquhar, 1996; Mercado et al., 2009). There is strong evidence for such a process having occurred over the last decades and is still ongoing (Phillips et al., 1998, 2009; Lewis et al., 2009). In contrast the changing climate has also been hypothesized to have adverse effects on tropical rainforests. As for other parts of the globe, warming of the Earths surface is predicted to result in an increase in climate variation in South America (Held and Soden, 2006) including likely increased frequency and intensity of dry periods. Such increased variation, together with a general global warming, may possibly lead to forest decline through enhanced 5 water stress, and drought induced forest loss may be further amplified by fire (White et al., 1999; Cox et al., 2000; Poulter et al., 2010; Nepstad et al., 1999; Aragao and Shimabukuro, 2010). Altogether it is the interplay between the very large area covered by high carbon density intact forests, and the very fast economical and demographic development and a changing climate, which make South America of particular interest 10 for its role in the contemporary carbon cycle and, in turn, to climate over the decades to come. The purpose of this study is to give a state of the art assessment of South American carbon stocks, fluxes and time trends, and their dominant controls. Further, we will assess the role of South America in the carbon cycle over the last decades in or15 der to provide an indication for what to expect in the decades to come. The paper is structured as follows. We start with a characterization of main biomes, stocks, mean climate, climate trends, demography and economic development. We then present and discuss stocks and carbon fluxes associated with different processes and estimated using complementary methods. Dominant processes, in a loose sense, fall into 20 the categories of fossil fuel emissions, deforestation, agriculture and trade, and rainforest tree growth trends. We then also discuss inferences from atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration patterns on carbon sources and sinks using atmospheric transport inverse modelling and vegetation model estimates, whilst recognising these two methods are still in stages of development.

O trabalho avalia a evolução espacial e temporal de informações socioespaciais para os nove municípios da Região Metropolitana da Baixada Santista (RMBS), São Paulo, sob a ótica da política. Se o mote da criação dessa região metropolitana foi o intenso e rápido processo de metropolização, com consequências variadas para a população e ambiente englobando desde o crescimento da renda e do emprego até processos de segregação socioespacial hoje, enquanto Região Metropolitana legalmente instituída, a Baixada Santista enfrenta dilemas que devem ser discutidos no seu conjunto. No mesmo horizonte de expansão dos serviços e investimentos convivem disputas de diversos atores, pelo uso do territorio, em um contexto de metropolização parcialmente consolidado. O período analisado (última década) revela que as diferenças entre municípios têm se ampliado, fato que atesta que os princípios de solidariedade e coesão que deveriam nortear a RMBS não estão sendo cumpridos. Este trabalho integra o projeto temático FAPESP 2008/58161-1, que visa avaliar impactos e vulnerabilidade de setores brasileiros às mudanças climáticas globais.