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In the present study two extreme events that occurred in the East Coast of Northeast Brazil (ENEB) during 2022 and 2023 were evaluated. These events are becoming increasingly frequent in all regions of Brazil, associated with significant material and human losses, emphasizing the significance of a deeper comprehension of these events. ERA5 global reanalysis data, GOES-16 satellite imagery and pluviometric stations were used for the analysis. Model simulations were also conducted using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with variable resolution (603 km). Both events corresponded to Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs) that occurred under opposite large-scale conditions of the ENSO cycle, since extreme events are becoming increasingly frequent in all regions of Brazil and could be responsible for significant material and human losses. Thus, an emphasis was given to characterize the synoptic conditions. Both analyzed cases occurred along the ENEB, specifically over the Alagoas state. The trough axis penetrating the studied area was observed on both examined dates, with a very characteristic relative vorticity of this tropical disturbance. In general, moisture convergence resulted from the high flow of moisture prevailing over the region combined with upward movements caused by the trough present at low levels, which combined with local factors in the region such as topography, contributed to the increase in rainfall over the study area in both analyzed cases. The MPAS showed excellent spatial representation when compared to station data, highlighting intense precipitation over parts of Alagoas.

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km2), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y-1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y-1) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y-1) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y-1). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y-1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

This study aims to identify the capacity of intact forests to maintain Above Ground Biomass (AGB) under new climate conditions. Using a predictive approach under different climate scenarios (SSP12.6 and SSP58.5), and considering the mean of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period (20212040), it was revealed that the regions with the greatest capacity for AGB in the optimistic scenario are concentrated in the northwest and southeast regions, covering the basins of the Negro, Xingu and Tapajós rivers. In the SSP58.5 scenario, although potential AGB gains are concentrated in the same regions, the spatial distribution is more restricted and dispersed. Indigenous Landsemerge as areas with the greatest potential AGB gains in both climate scenarios. However, these predictions do not include the impact of extreme climate events, such as storms, severe droughts, and wildfires, which could lead to an underestimation of actual biomass variations.

In the present study, we propose a transdisciplinary investigation aimed at developing an index to assess the vulnerability to landslides in the Brazilian municipality of São José dos Campos. The proposed Socio-Geoenvironmental Vulnerability Index (SGeoVI) was developed using a hybrid modeling approach that integrates socioeconomic data with landslide susceptibility mapping. Landslide susceptibility was derived from the FS FIORI deterministic model, which calculates the Safety Factor (FS) using the concept of limit equilibrium. The mapping of land use and land cover enabled the inclusion of new parameters related to certain anthropogenic conditions and vegetation cover, such as the overabundance of buildings and the presence or absence of tree vegetation, which are significant factors influencing landslide occurrence. Socioeconomic indicators were extracted from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) census data, and variables were selected and spatially represented for each of São José dos Camposs 1073 census tracts. Socioeconomic indicators were taken into account for the SGeoVI proposal and categorized into five thematic groups: economic; educational; housing infrastructure; social dependency; e family structure. Based on the Socio-geoenvironmental vulnerability indicators, several neighborhoods in São José dos Campos, SP, were selected for a detailed SGeoVI assessment. In Pinheirinhos, a neighborhood situated in the southernmost part of São José dos Campo, the highest SGeoVI value reached to 0.91. In contrast, Jardim Apolo I, an established neighborhood located in the Central Region of São José dos Campos, exhibited a considerably lower SGeoVI value of only 0.04, for instance. The verification results of SGeoVI revealed socioeconomic disparities that align with geomorphological variations. The northern and southern parts of the municipality exhibit high susceptibility to landslides, coupled with low-income communities and inadequate housing structures, contributing to elevated socio-geoenvironmental vulnerability. In contrast, central regions feature flat terrain, reduced natural susceptibility, higher income levels, and improved access to housing infrastructure, resulting in lower vulnerability values. Given its ability to assess intra-municipal socio-geoenvironmental vulnerability, SGeoVI holds potential for extrapolation to other municipalities. Consequently, it can serve as a valuable tool for municipal authorities in formulating public policies aimed at landslide risk management.

Amazon forests are the largest forests in the tropics and play a fundamental role for regional and global ecosystem service provision. However, they are under threat primarily from deforestation. Amazonia’s carbon balance trend reflects the condition of its forests. There are different approaches to estimate large-scale carbon balances, including top-down (e.g., CO2 atmospheric measurements combined with atmospheric transport information) and bottom-up (e.g., land use and cover change (LUCC) data based on remote sensing methods). It is important to understand their similarities and differences. Here we provide bottom-up LUCC estimates and determine to what extent they are consistent with recent top-down flux estimates during 2010 to 2018 for the Brazilian Amazon. We combine LUCC datasets resulting in annual LUCC maps from 2010 to 2018 with emissions and removals for each LUCC, and compare the resulting CO2 estimates with top-down estimates based on atmospheric measurements. We take into account forest carbon stock maps for estimating loss processes, and carbon uptake of regenerating and mature forests. In the bottom-up approach total CO2 emissions (2010 to 2018), deforestation and degradation are the largest contributing processes accounting for 58% (4.3 PgCO2) and 37% (2.7 PgCO2) respectively. Looking at the total carbon uptake, primary forests play a dominant role accounting for 79% (−5.9 PgCO2) and secondary forest growth for 17% (−1.2 PgCO2). Overall, according to our bottom-up estimates the Brazilian Amazon is a carbon sink until 2014 and a source from 2015 to 2018. In contrast according to the top-down approach the Brazilian Amazon is a source during the entire period. Both approaches estimate largest emissions in 2016. During the period where flux signs are the same (20152018) top-down estimates are approximately 3 times larger in 20152016 than bottom-up estimates while in 20172018 there is closer agreement. There is some agreement between the approachesnotably that the Brazilian Amazon has been a source during 20152018 however there are also disagreements. Generally, emissions estimated by the bottom-up approach tend to be lower. Understanding the differences will help improve both approaches and our understanding of the Amazon carbon cycle under human pressure and climate change.

Climate change can modify the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall across the globe, leading to changes in hazards posed by rainfall-induced landslides. In Brazil, an example of a location with a high occurrence of landslides and with few studies on the subject is the municipality of Cunha, located in the State of São Paulo. In this way, the main aims of this study are twofold: 1) to identify and analyze areas susceptible to landslides and rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the municipality of Cunha; and 2) by using climate projections from the regional model Eta-HadGEM2-ES under RCP 4.5, to predict new extreme events and possible new landslides in this municipality, from 2024 to 2040. The susceptibility map has been prepared using selected physical-biotic environment elements whereas the hazard map has been produced using precipitation data. Using Eta-HadGEM2-ES climate projections under RCP 4.5, for precipitation events, results project the occurrence of 49 days with landslides for the period between 2024 and 2040. The outcomes of this study are considered of extreme relevance for the local community, public authorities, and decision-makers, to raise awareness regarding future urban planning strategies to prevent and mitigate the effects of catastrophes arising from natural hazard-induced disasters.

Most of the world’s nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil’s chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil’s Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.

Geodetic landmarks (GLs) are essential for obtaining precise height, horizontal coordinates, and the Earth’s gravity field. This study aims to assess the soil susceptibility of GLs for past, present, and future scenarios, considering the projected anthropogenic effect from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Version 6 (CMIP6). Therefore, the soil loss estimations were made for all the GLs in the southern region of Santa Catarina state in Brazil using the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Our results showed average soil loss decreasing from 1985 to 2020. There was an increase in GLs in the null class (soil loss = 0 t/ha/year), mainly caused by urban growth. A decrease occurred in the low (0 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤10 t/ha/year), very severe (soil loss >200 t/ha/year), severe (50 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤200 t/ha/year), and moderate classes (10 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤50 t/ha/year). In addition, most future scenarios projected an increase in soil loss susceptibility, which also increased the GLs’ susceptibility to soil loss from 2020 to 2100, albeit with lower values than the historical series. The soil loss remained stable in ssp126, slightly increased in ssp245 and ssp370, and increased in ssp585. The future scenarios only take into account changes in rainfall. Thus, the land cover change forecast would also be necessary for better analysis for future studies. Therefore, climate simulations can be used to understand the effects of climate change on soil erosion to support decision-making regarding GLs maintenance and the construction of new ones.

Little is known about the impact of hypoxia and anoxia during mycelial growth on tolerance to different stress conditions of developing fungal conidia. Conidia of the insect-pathogenic fungus Metarhizium robertsii were produced on potato dextrose agar (PDA) medium under normoxia (control = normal oxygen concentrations), continuous hypoxia, and transient anoxia, as well as minimal medium under normoxia. The tolerance of the conidia produced under these different conditions was evaluated in relation to wet heat (heat stress), menadione (oxidative stress), potassium chloride (osmotic stress), UV radiation, and 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide (=4-NQO genotoxic stress). Growth under hypoxic condition induced higher conidial tolerance of M. robertsii to menadione, KCl, and UV radiation. Transient anoxic condition induced higher conidial tolerance to KCl and UV radiation. Nutritional stress (i.e., minimal medium) induced higher conidial tolerance to heat, menadione, KCl, and UV radiation. However, neither of these treatments induced higher tolerance to 4-NQO. The gene hsp30 and hsp101 encoding a heat shock protein was upregulated under anoxic condition. In conclusion, growth under hypoxia and anoxia produced conidia with higher stress tolerances than conidia produced in normoxic condition. The nutritive stress generated by minimal medium, however, induced much higher stress tolerances. This condition also caused the highest level of gene expression in the hsp30 and hsp101 genes. Thus, the conidia produced under nutritive stress, hypoxia, and anoxia had greater adaptation to stress.

Ao longo dos anos, a necessidade de impulsionar o desenvolvimento sustentável cresce continuamente. Entretanto, mesmo com a implantação de diversas medidas voltadas para a ampliação da eficiência de exploração e do acesso aos recursos, pesquisas apontam para a fragilidade do progresso alcançado. A análise de dados observados evidencia um aumento na ocorrência de eventos extremos, mudanças no padrão histórico de variáveis do clima, crescimento da demanda por bens e serviços, dentre outros processos que desencadeiam uma redução da confiabilidade dos sistemas de abastecimento dessas demandas, como água e energia. Esses conflitos tornam fundamental a adaptação da sociedade e das políticas públicas às novas condições do meio. Nesse contexto, a aplicação da abordagem integrativa do Nexo, considerando os eixos água, energia e alimentos, é vista como uma alternativa interessante para auxiliar na melhoria da eficiência de exploração desses recursos. No Brasil, a Bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul, uma região fundamental para o desenvolvimento do país, tem sofrido com o aumento de conflitos associados à gestão dos recursos. Essa região já foi intensamente modificada pela ação antrópica e auxilia no abastecimento de água e na geração de energia das regiões metropolitanas de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro, às quais não estão localizadas dentro dos limites desta bacia. Diante da significativa dependência dos recursos hídricos para garantia da segurança hídrica, energética e alimentar, além da necessidade de implantação de uma gestão integrada desses recursos na Bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul, a tese aplica a abordagem Nexo, para analisar a condição futura de exploração dos recursos hídricos, considerando a influência de políticas públicas, as tendências de uso e ocupação do solo e as mudanças climáticas no horizonte de 2050. Nesse contexto, foram propostos indicadores que contemplam as metas propostas pelos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável que têm como objetivo a eliminação da fome e a promoção da agricultura sustentável (ODS 2), água potável e saneamento básico para todos (ODS 6) e a garantia de acesso à energia limpa (ODS 7). Dentre os resultados dessa análise, as projeções das vazões da bacia evidenciam uma tendência de aumento dos eventos extremos, principalmente de secas. A redução da disponibilidade hídrica impacta no aumento da frequência de falhas dos sistemas de abastecimento de água e geração de energia, principalmente nos cenários de maiores emissões das últimas décadas avaliadas. Em relação às taxas de acesso à coleta e tratamento de esgoto, a estagnação das taxas atuais desses serviços implicará uma redução da qualidade dos mananciais superficiais e, consequentemente, em uma limitação da disponibilidade hídrica. Em relação à aplicação de políticas de redução do uso da água, a atividade agrícola realizada na bacia não impacta significativamente nos indicadores avaliados. Por fim, a redução na quantidade de energia gerada nas hidrelétricas pode ser compensada pela expansão da geração fotovoltaica distribuída. Assim, é necessária a diversificação das políticas de gestão de recursos aplicadas na Bacia do Paraíba do Sul para garantir a sustentabilidade do desenvolvimento nacional e a adaptação da população à tendência de redução da disponibilidade de recursos hídricos.

No dia 20 de julho de 2023 foi realizada uma missão de campo para conhecimento e troca de informações com duas aldeias indígenas localizadas no município de Ubatuba, São Paulo. As características destas comunidades são similares às demais incluídas no projeto Vozes em Recuperação: historicamente marginalizadas, em processo de luta para demarcação e reconhecimento de seus territórios, com estratégias de resistência e enfrentando múltiplas ameaças socioambientais. Estavam presentes os pesquisadores Roger Few da Universidade East Anglia [Reino Unido], Victoria Lugo Agudelo, da Universidade de Caldas [Colombia], o doutorando Marcelo A. Santos Júnior do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Janaina C. Santos e Ana Larissa R. Freitas, pesquisadoras colaboradoras do Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden) [projeto FAPESP n.2021/07660-2] e a coordenadora do Projeto Vozes-Brasil Liana O. Anderson, Cemaden. O transporte foi fornecido pelo Cemaden, constando de uma van e motorista. O itinerário iniciou-se às 7h30, partindo da portaria principal do INPE, em de São José dos Campos. As duas aldeias ficam situadas no município de Ubatuba, localizado no litoral Norte de São Paulo. A Terra Indígena Boa Vista foi homologada pelo Decreto no 94.220/1987 e identificada pelo Despacho da Presidência Funai no 529/2013. É formada pelas aldeias Tekoa Jaexaá Porã (Aldeia Boa Vista), Yyakã Porã (Aldeia Rio Bonito) e Akaray Mirim (Aldeia do Sertão do Puruba). Possui aproximadamente 97% de sua área sobreposta pelo Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, gerando conflitos em relação a suas práticas de uso e manejo de recursos naturais dentro de seu próprio território. São áreas reconhecidas pela FUNAI e que estão em revisão, sendo o mapeamento muito importante para contribuir nos processos de demarcação e de proteção aos territórios indígenas, de seus direitos e de suas culturas. Os indígenas que habitam esse território são os Guarani Mbya, os quais possuem características comuns na cultura, na economia e no ambiente em que vivem há muitos séculos. Estes povos têm uma relação direta com a natureza, dela coletando materiais para uso como cipós, madeiras, ervas, frutos, plantando e pescando seus alimentos. Antigamente a caça era utilizada também como fonte de alimentação.

In this work, we analyze the AERONETs solar photometer Aerosol Optical Depth from four stations in Brazil to investigate the scale-invariant behavior using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The selected stations have different levels of exposure to pollution in a year and exhibit long-term correlation and multifractal behavior. All three measures, viz., the generalized Hurst exponent, mass exponent, and multifractal spectrum quantifies the multifractal behavior. For all the four stations, the fluctuations quantified by the Hurst exponent varying between 0.6 and 1.8 indicate long-term correlations in the data. Non-linear variation of the mass exponent with negative and positive moments, and the width of the multifractal spectra, between 0.5 and 1.27 confirm the multifractal behavior. To summarize, for the chosen stations the multifractal analysis is able to distinguish between sites influenced by biomass burning emissions from the urbanized ones. Results for all sites show the sensitivity to larger temporal scales.