Publicações

New data on biogas production and treatment of cattle wastewater were registered using an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket-anaerobic filter (UASB-AF) hybrid reactor under mesophilic temperature conditions (37 °C). The reactor was operated in semi-continuous mode with hydraulic retention times of 6, 5, 3 and 2 days and organic loading rates of 3.8, 4.6, 7.0 and 10.8 kg CODt m−3 d−1. Biogas volumes of 0.60.8 m3 m−3 d−1 (3.84.6 kg CODt m−3 d−1) and 1.21.4 m3 m−3 d−1 (7.010.8 kg CODt m−3 d−1), with methane concentrations between 69 and 75%, were attained. The removal of organic matter with values of 6081% (CODt) and 5175% (CODs) allowed methane yields of 0.1550.183 m3 CH4 kg−1 CODt and 0.4010.513 m3 CH4 kg−1 CODs to be obtained. Volatile solids were removed in 34 to 69%, with corresponding methane yields of 0.27 to 0.42 m3 CH4 kg−1 VSremoved. The good performance of the novel hybrid reactor was demonstrated by biogas outputs higher than reported previously in the literature, along with the quality of the gas obtained in the various experimental phases. The hybrid reactor investigated in this study presents comparative advantages, particularly in relation to conventional complete mixture units, considering economic factors such as energy consumption, reactor volume and installation area.

Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the A1B-AR4/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated by the ETA-INPE/ HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a temperature increase of up to 4.4 °C, and a wind speed increase of up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The consequences of projected climate change are severe and will probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may have great importance in water retention. RESUMO: O conhecimento sobre os recursos hídricos é crítico para a adaptação diante das mudanças de longo prazo e ocorrência mais frequente de eventos extremos. Nas grandes secas de 2005 e 2010, um grande epicentro foi localizado no sudoeste da Amazônia sobre a Bacia do Rio Purus. Nesse sentido, foi realizada uma simulação hidrológica nessa bacia, para avaliar os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre seus recursos hídricos ao longo do século 21. O balanço hídrico foi simulado utilizando o modelo hidrológico distribuído (MHD-INPE). As projeções climáticas futuras foram simuladas pelo modelo regional ETA-INPE forçado por 4 membros do modelo global HadCM3 sobre o cenário de emissões de gases de efeito estufa A1B-AR4/IPCC. Como simulado pelo ETA-INPE/HadCM3, a resposta média dos 4 membros para o cenário A1B representa uma redução de chuvas em até 11,1%, aumento de temperatura em até 4,4 °C, e aumento da velocidade do vento em até 8,4% para a Bacia do Purus até o fim do século 21. Sob essas condições, as projeções de descarga representam uma diminuição global de 27% na Bacia do Purus, com diferentes padrões entre as estações seca e úmida, bem como mudanças nas tendências sazonais. As consequências das mudanças climáticas projetadas são severas e provavelmente terão um grande impacto sobre a manutenção dos ecossistemas naturais e subsistência humana. Em um processo de adaptação a mudanças climáticas, a preservação da cobertura florestal natural da Bacia do Purus pode ter grande importância na retenção de água.

In recent decades, population growth associated with unplanned urban occupation has increased the vulnerability of the Brazilian population to natural disasters. In susceptible regions, early flood forecasting is essential for risk management. Still, in Brazil, most flood forecast and warning systems are based either on simplified models of flood wave propagation through the drainage network or on stochastic models. This paper presents a methodology for flood forecasting aiming to an operational warning system that proposes to increase the lead time of a warning through the use of an ensemble of meteorological forecasts. The chosen configuration was chosen so it would be feasible for an operational flood forecast and risk management. The methodology was applied to the flood forecast for the Itajaı´-Ac¸u River basin, a region which comprises a drainage area of approximately 15,500 km2 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, historically affected by floods. Ensemble weather forecasts were used as input to the MHD-INPE hydrological model, and the performance of the methodology was assessed through statistical indicators. Results suggest that flood warnings can be issued up to 48 h in advance, with a low rate of false warnings. Streamflow forecasting through the use of hydrological ensemble prediction systems is still scarce in Brazil. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this methodology aiming to an operational flood risk management system has been tested in Brazil.

Climate change narratives often evoke scary scenarios. But in business discourses, the climate change narrative often emerges as an opportunity rather than a threat. This paper examines the predominant business storytelling ploys used by Brazils sugarcane industry association, UNICA to promote the industry as environmentally and socially responsible. We used both qualitative and quantitative narrative analysis to analyze thirty-five videos and multimedia presentations produced as part of UNICAs marketing communications. Drawing on insights about tropes variously evoking hero stories, learning stories and horror stories, we conclude that the sugarcane industry has developed hero and learning stories that portray the sugarcane industry as a sustainable business and ethanol as a green hero, a green, renewable energy that helps reduce greenhouses gas emissions and thus saves humanity from climate change.

It is known that the Amazon region plays an important role in the global energy, hydrological cycle and carbon balance. This region has been suffering from the course of the past 40 years intense land use and land cover changes. With this in mind, this study has examined possible associations between change in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and land cover change in the Amazon, using the PRECIS regional modelling system. It has been found that the impacts of land cover change by forest removal are more intense in the so-called Arc of deforestation over central and southern Amazonia. However, the relative impact of the simulated rainfall changes seems to be more important in the JJA dry season. In addition, the simulations under the deforestation scenarios also show the occurrence of extreme rainfall events as well as more frequent dry periods. Therefore, the results found show to be potentially important in the modulation of regional climate variations which have several environmental and socio-economic impacts.

In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 ± 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 ± 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Niña evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Niño conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth’s surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44°C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0°C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8°C, representing a 3.5°C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute ∼7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01°C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st centuryto-date of +0.162°C decade-1 is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100°C decade-1. Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Niño at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Niña contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia’s worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.

The Integrated Land Surface model (INLAND) land surface model, in offline mode, was 25 adjusted and forced with prescribed climate to represent two contrasting environments along a 26 topographic gradient in a central Amazon Terra Firme forest, which is distinguished by well- 27 drained, flat plateaus and poorly drained, broad river valleys. To correctly simulate the valley 28 area, a lumped unconfined aquifer model was included in the INLAND model to represent the 29 water table dynamics and results show reasonable agreement with observations. Field data 30 from both areas are used to evaluate the model simulations of energy, water and carbon 31 fluxes. The model is able to characterize with good accuracy the main differences that appear 32 in the seasonal energy and carbon partitioning of plateau and valley fluxes, which are related 33 to features of the vegetation associated with soils and topography. The simulated latent heat 34 flux (LE) and net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), for example, are higher on the 35 plateau area while at the bottom of the valley the sensible heat flux (H) is noticeably higher 36 than at the plateau, in agreement with observed data. Differences in simulated hydrological 37 fluxes are also linked to the topography, showing a higher surface runoff (R) and lower 38 evapotranspiration (ET) in the valley area. The different behavior of the fluxes on both annual and diurnal time scales confirms the benefit of a tiling mechanism in the presence of large 40 contrast and the importance to incorporate subgrid-scale variability by including relief 41 attributes of topography, soil and vegetation to better representing Terra Firme forests in 42 land surface models.

Understanding how Amazonian rainforests deal with extended droughts is critical in the face of changing climate. This research analyze the physical properties and the soil water dynamics of a deep soil profile in an area of primary forest in central Amazonia to elucidate these processes under drought and nondrought conditions. Physical soil properties derived from soil cores exhibited a distinctive layer between 480 and 880cm deep, characterized by higher microporosity and low plant water availability. In situ soil moisture measurements collected during the period from January 2003 through February 2006 and for depths ranging from 10 to 1,430cm suggest that, in the study site, the top 480cm of the soil profile satisfied most of the transpirational demands in normal climatological years. However, during exceptionally dry periods, such as the 2005 drought, root uptake occurs below 480cm. As concluded by previous studies, most of the uptake is concentrated in the first meter of the soil profile: More than 40% of the total demand for transpiration is supplied by the top meter of soil. Because deep root uptake occurred at greater depths than normal during the 2005 drought, our results suggest that this is a fundamental mechanism to cope with prolonged droughts.

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.