Publicações

Despite Brazil’s substantial freshwater reserves, regional disparities and increasing anthropogenic pressures have led to recurrent water scarcity, particularly in the northeast and central-west regions. Climate change is expected to intensify these challenges by further stressing surface and groundwater resources. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on future water availability in Brazil using a GIS-based distributed water balance model, particularly the aquifer recharge. Changes in precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge (GWR) were evaluated under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), based on bias-corrected CMIP6 projections for three future periods: 2025-2050 (F1), 2050-2075 (F2), and 2075-2100 (F3). Climate inputs were used to compute water balance parameters on a monthly basis, which were then aggregated to annual means and compared against a historical baseline (1980-2013). The results indicate an increase in average annual temperature under both emission scenarios. Under SSP245, the projected average temperature rise is 1.02 degrees C, 1.56 degrees C, and 1.94 degrees C for the periods F1, F2, and F3, respectively. Under SSP585, the temperature increase is more pronounced, with projections of 1.38 degrees C, 2.43 degrees C, and 3.66 degrees C for the same periods. Precipitation changes across the country are highly variable; however, the maps generally show a decrease in the northern and eastern regions. Changes in climate parameters are expected to impact annual runoff, with increases projected mainly in the southern and eastern regions. At the same time, decreases are anticipated in the north, west, and southeast regions, reaching up to – 261 mm/year. As surface water availability declines due to climate change, reliance on groundwater resources is expected to increase. However, climate change is projected to reduce GWR by up to – 666 mm/year directly. The Bauru-Caiu & aacute; Aquifer System is projected to experience the most severe reduction in GWR, with a decrease of up to – 27.94%. Other aquifers, such as Bambu & iacute; C & aacute;rstico, Furnas, Guarani, Parecis, Ponta Grossa, and Serra Geral, are also expected to face significant reductions in recharge. Therefore, an integrated approach to water resources management will be critical in these regions to effectively balance future water demand and supply.

As fire seasons in Brazil lengthen and intensify, the need to enhance fire simulations and to comprehend fire drivers becomes crucial. Yet determining what drives burning in different Brazilian biomes is a major challenge, with a highly uncertain relationship between drivers and fire. Finding ways to acknowledge and quantify that uncertainty is critical in ascertaining the causes of Brazil’s changing fire regimes. We propose FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new fire model that integrates Bayesian inference with the maximum entropy concept, enabling probabilistic reasoning and uncertainty quantification. FLAME utilises bioclimatic, land cover, and human driving variables to model fires. We apply FLAME to Brazilian biomes, evaluating its performance against observed data for three categories of fires: all fires (ALL), fires reaching natural vegetation (NAT), and fires in non-natural vegetation (NON). We assessed burned-area responses to different explanatory variable groups. The model showed adequate performance for all biomes and fire categories. Together, maximum temperature and precipitation are important factors influencing burned area in all biomes. The number of roads and forest boundaries (edge densities), forests and pastures, and carbon in dead vegetation showed higher uncertainties among the responses. Overall, the uncertainties were larger for the NON category, particularly for the Pampas and Pantanal regions. Customising explanatory variable selection and fire categories based on biome characteristics could contribute to a more biome-focused and contextually relevant analysis. Moreover, prioritising regional-scale analysis is essential for decision-makers and fire management strategies. FLAME is easily adaptable and can be used in various locations and periods, serving as a valuable tool for more informed and effective fire prevention measures.

A análise das condições atmosféricas associadas à variabilidade da precipitação é fundamental para compreender o ciclo hidrológico e planejar atividades produtivas. No sudeste do Brasil, eventos de precipitação associados à sistemas meteorológicos de diversas escalas podem resultar em impactos ambientais e econômicos significativos. Nesse contexto, o uso de isótopos estáveis da água, como o deutério (2H) e o oxigênio-18 (18O), destaca-se como uma ferramenta valiosa em estudos ambientais, por registrar marcas únicas em cada estágio do ciclo hidrológico, desde a formação das precipitações até a sua infiltração nos lençóis freáticos. Na presente pesquisa, foram analisados dados de isótopos estáveis da água coletados em eventos de chuva na região do Vale do Paraíba Paulista entre fevereiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2021. Esses dados isotópicos foram comparados com a descrição dos principais sistemas meteorológicos precipitantes da região, incluindo frentes frias, precipitações isoladas, Sistemas Convectivos de Mesoescala (SCMs) e a Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS). O objetivo principal foi avaliar a aplicabilidade dos isótopos como identificadores desses sistemas meteorológicos, bem como seu potencial para estimar o volume anual de precipitação gerado por cada sistema. As etapas da pesquisa foram definidas em cinco objetivos específicos: 1) Identificar os padrões dos sistemas meteorológicos ao longo do período de estudo, por meio da classificação de boletins técnicos provenientes do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE); 2) Quantificar o volume de chuva de cada sistema meteorológico, com base nos boletins técnicos; 3) Determinar a ´assinatura´ isotópica dos sistemas convectivos estudados, e 4) Quantificar o volume de chuva anual produzido por cada sistema meteorológico estudado a partir da classificação baseada em isótopos, para comparação com a quantificação baseada nos boletins técnicos. Os resultados indicaram uma variabilidade intra-anual significativa na contribuição dos sistemas meteorológicos ao volume total de chuvas. A partir da classificação de sistemas baseada nos boletins técnicos do CPTEC/INPE, em 2019, as frentes frias predominaram como fonte de precipitação (36%); em 2020, as precipitações isoladas foram as que mais contribuíram para a chuva anual (43%); e em 2021, os SCMs destacaram-se como os mais significativos (36%). A análise isotópica revelou que os eventos de frente fria apresentaram os sinais isotópicos mais enriquecidos (δ 18O -2,6 ±2,8 e δ2H -6,8 ±21,3), seguidos por precipitações isoladas (δ 18O -3,3 ±3,2 e δ2H -14,5 ±25,1), SCMs (δ 18O -6,5 ±3,5 e δ2H -41,1 ±29,3) e ZCAS (δ 18O -11,0 ±3,7 e δ2H -80,1 ±31,1). Observou-se que o número de eventos por sistema não correspondeu diretamente ao volume de chuva acumulado. Isso ocorre devido ao fato de que além no número de eventos, é também necessário considerar a variação entre chuvas intensas e leves. Os sinais isotópicos dos sistemas apresentaram pouca variação na escala sazonal em todo o período estudado, demonstrando que cada sistema permanece com sua identidade isotópica, mesmo em estações do ano diferentes. A classificação dos sistemas meteorológicos baseada em isótopos mostrou-se consistente para a identificação inicial dos sistemas, mas insatisfatória para a estimativa do volume anual de precipitação gerado por cada sistema, devido principalmente à sobreposição de valores isotópicos.

Dada a complexidade dos diversos desafios socioambientais, torna-se essencial a construção de estratégias robustas de colaboração em processos inter e transdisciplinares, os quais, por sua vez, exigem arranjos metodológicos cada vez mais inovadores e com monitoramento continuado de seus resultados. Diante disto, foi desenhado e realizado um processo junto aos pesquisadores da Divisão de Impactos, Adaptação e Vulnerabilidades (DIIAV) da Coordenação Geral de Ciências da Terra do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CGCT/INPE), com o objetivo de promover a aprendizagem da colaboração baseada nos princípios e técnicas do diálogo. Entre os resultados figuram o aprendizado dos princípios e práticas dialógicas e colaborativas, a compreensão e construção de significados coletivos, e a mudança na qualidade dos relacionamentos. Dessa forma, pode-se afirmar que o método dialógico apresenta um potencial significativo para impulsionar processos coletivos e colaborativos menos hierarquizados, bem como favorecer a emergência de novas ideias e contribuir para a construção de um ambiente mais acolhedor e confortável, facilitando a complexa tarefa de atuar nas interfaces entre diferentes campos do conhecimento.

Este caderno apresenta a segunda versão revisada e ampliada dos indicadores de Monitoramento e Avaliação (M&A) de Políticas Públicas e Iniciativas de Educação Ambiental do Sistema MonitoraEA. Com sua versão inicial lançada em dezembro de 2019, os indicadores do Sistema MonitoraEA se consolidaram como o principal referencial para subsidiar processos de reflexão, autoavaliação e fomento de novas PPEA em todo o Brasil. A partir desta rica experiência, e da realização de novos processos de construção coletiva (que culminaram em novas perspectivas de monitoramento e avaliação dentro do Sistema MonitoraEA), compreendeu-se que havia chegado o momento de realizar seu primeiro processo de ampla revisão. Com esta atualização, o leitor encontrará uma revisão das dimensões que compõem o marco referencial de monitoramento e avaliação das Políticas Públicas de Educação Ambiental (PPEA) do Sistema MonitoraEA, além da atualização das fichas metodológicas dos indicadores. Durante o processo, alguns indicadores originais foram revistos e unificados, enquanto outros foram incluídos. Também foram ajustadas as opções de resposta, os pesos e as métricas para melhor quantificar o desempenho em cada indicador. Uma contribuição relevante no contexto desta atualização consiste na elaboração de indicadores de monitoramento e avaliação (M&A) voltados a iniciativas de Educação Ambiental. No âmbito do Sistema MonitoraEA, essas iniciativas são definidas como programas, projetos e ações desenvolvidos em contextos educativos formais, não formais ou informais por atores não governamentais. Embora tais iniciativas contribuam para os diversos arranjos de implementação das Políticas Públicas de Educação Ambiental (PPEA), suas especificidades exigiram o estabelecimento de indicadores próprios. Estes foram desenvolvidos com base no mesmo referencial teóricometodológico aplicado às PPEA, porém com adaptações necessárias para abarcar a diversidade de agentes não governamentais envolvidos nesse campo. Tais indicadores estão disponíveis no caderno de indicadores de monitoramento e avaliação de iniciativas de educação ambiental no Sistema MonitoraEA. Na primeira seção deste caderno são apresentados uma síntese do histórico do processo de construção participativa dos indicadores, bem como o arcabouço conceitual adotado pelo Sistema MonitoraEA para a definição de Políticas Públicas e de Iniciativas de Educação Ambiental. Ainda, são apresentados os ajustes ao marco referencial de M&A do Sistema MonitoraEA, as tipologias de indicadores adotados pelo sistema e os padrões de metrificação. Na segunda parte são apresentadas as fichas metodológicas dos indicadores de M&A de PPEA. Este documento foi elaborado com o objetivo de proporcionar uma compreensão abrangente e aprofundada desta nova fase de consolidação do Sistema MonitoraEA. As iniciativas empreendidas até o presente momento foram meticulosamente planejadas para fortalecer o campo da Educação Ambiental no Brasil, com ênfase especial na análise de políticas públicas e na importância de processos contínuos e reflexivos de monitoramento e avaliação.

Extreme rainfall events are becoming increasingly frequent in Northeast Brazil (NEB). The state of Alagoas, located on the eastern coast of the region, is one of the most affected areas in recent years, with records of high-magnitude events over the past four years. These events cause significant socioeconomic impacts, resulting in considerable human and material losses, underscoring the importance of a deeper understanding to mitigate short-term risks better. This study aims to investigate the synoptic and mesoscale conditions driving the extreme precipitation event occurred on May 6-7, 2024, which rainfall totals surpassed 270 mm/day across multiple areas of Alagoas, marking the highest 24-hour rainfall accumulation in the region this century. The study also evaluated the ability of the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to perform simulation for the extreme precipitation event, using a variable grid of 60-3 km and convection-permitting parameterization through two microphysics schemes: WSM6 and Thompson. Infrared channel (10.35 µm) images from the GOES-16 satellite were used to monitor the cloudiness development. ERA5 global reanalysis data were utilized to evaluate the synoptic conditions as a first analysis step. Observed precipitation data from MERGE/INPE, S-band meteorological radar, and rain gauges operated by CEMADEN were used to analyze accumulated precipitation. Synoptic analysis, through streamlines, revealed strong wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, which was responsible for developing a Squall Line that propagated and reached Alagoas on May 6. The propagation of eastward-moving cloudiness towards the study area was observed on the same day, resulting from an Easterly Wave Disturbance (EWD) identified through the transport of kinetic energy originating near the African continent (1°E; 20°S). The displacement and intensification of this system towards NEB were confirmed by the intense vertical integrated moisture transport convergence (1000200 hPa) over time, enhancing convection as it encountered the mesoscale system over the continent. As confirmed by anomalies, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) played an essential role in intensifying vertical motions, which were unusually high for this time of year. Overall, the EWD trough axis propagating along the trade winds, combined with intense moisture convergence, symbolized the intensification of upward movements in the region, where the dynamic conditions necessary for the development of the extreme precipitation event were established. The simulations showed that the MPAS underestimated the intensity of precipitation associated with the extreme event, although the simulations predicted values exceeding 50 mm/day in the most affected area. The results show similar performance in reproducing weather variables, with slightly better results for the WSM6 run. Preliminary results provide valuable insights into the performance of MPAS, emphasizing the need for further evaluation using additional physical parameterizations and alternative model configurations to enhance its predictive accuracy.

This study presents a 21-year climatology (19982018) of Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs) over the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA). The identification of these systems was performed subjectively using infrared satellite images and fields of relative vorticity and streamlines at 1000, 850, 700, 500, and 200 hPa levels from the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis. Additionally, the TracKH automatic tracking algorithm was applied, successfully capturing approximately 66% of the subjectively identified events. A total of 518 EWDs were recorded during the study period, with 97% reaching the Northeast Brazil (NEB) region, and 64% exhibiting convective characteristics. The highest frequency of events was observed between April and August, with an average of approximately 25 EWDs per year. The primary genesis areas were located between 20°S5°N and 35°W15°W. The trajectories and dissipation predominantly occurred along the NEB’s eastern coastline, particularly between Alagoas and Rio Grande do Norte. Dissipation generally occurred rapidly after the systems moved inland. Several atmospheric systems were identified as key contributors to EWD genesis, including the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Upper-Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCV), cold fronts, and convective clusters originating from the west coast of Africa. These factors played a significant role in the intensification and organization of the disturbances. During the wet season, the synoptic patterns associated with EWDs revealed anomalous cyclonic and confluent circulations, along with convergence and negative vorticity from low levels up to 200 hPa, where only a trough feature was observed. Negative anomalies of vertical motion and temperature, coupled with increased relative humidity, were also identified, fostering favorable conditions for enhanced convection and precipitation associated with the disturbances.

Flash droughts are a type of drought that develops abruptly in response to rainfall deficits and high evapotranspiration that depletes soil water quickly. The speed and intensity can strongly impact both natural vegetation and crops, and the lack of predictability poses a major challenge to early warning systems. This study investigates the frequency, duration, speed, and severity of flash droughts for different Brazilian biomes over the period 1980-2020, based on time variation of soil water storage estimated using daily gridded meteorological data and a high-resolution soil database. Results revealed that flash droughts are more frequent in the Caatinga, Pantanal and Cerrado biomes. We identified differences among biomes in terms of duration, severity and speed of flash drought. Trend analysis indicated the intensification in speed and magnitude of flash drought mostly in eastern and northern Amazonia, southern and northern Cerrado, and in several spots of the Caatinga and the Atlantic forest biomes. Existent studies at a global scale have shown similar trends in Central Brazil, but some discrepancies in the case of the Amazon biome. The most likely explanation is that the occurrence of flash drought is closely related to the soil available water capacity, which was not mapped with high levels of detail in previous studies.

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in southeast Brazil (S & atilde;o Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Esp & iacute;rito Santo) between 1981 and 2020, using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The region, which plays a vital role in Brazil’s economy and houses 80 million people, has been increasingly affected by extreme weather events. The analysis examines seasonal variability and changes in precipitation patterns, revealing a significant decrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, particularly during autumn and winter. These findings highlight shifting trends in precipitation extremes, providing valuable insights into the region’s evolving climate dynamics.

Decision support tools such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be employed in the context of the Theory of Change (ToC) to support stakeholders’ concerns and guide agroecological transitions in the tropics. Given the so often limitation of financial resources, identifying priority areas for large-scale, cost-effective agroecological investments is critical. This study introduces a simplified card-ranking MCDA approach to integrate spatialised socioecological factors and stakeholder preferences for identifying priority restoration areas in Northeastern Pará, Brazil. The stakeholders interviewed comprised 20 farmers and 23 specialists. They were tasked in ranking 21 factors with potential to influence secondary vegetation dynamics (according to a regression modelling study), grouped into two clusters: economic/infrastructure and biophysical/land use restrictions. Both groups prioritised key infrastructure factors, like distance to roads, markets, and urban centres. Discrepancies arose in biophysical/land use factors, with farmers prioritising, for example, conservation units of sustainable use, a factor disregarded by specialists. The data was processed through a prioritization model applied to 10 × 10 km grids to produce maps. Specialists identified 5 % of the NE Pará mesoregion as high priority, while farmers indicated 9 %, with convergence revealing Bragantina as the key microregion to promote agroecology (33 % high-priority area). Our results offer insights into Structured Decision Making (SDM) methods and inform regional policies, highlighting western Bragantina and southwestern Salgado a\s prime areas for cost-effective agroecological restoration interventions.