Publicações

In 2014, an extreme drought caused massive, unprecedented livestock and wildlife deaths in northwestern South Americas tropical savanna region. The causes of this drought remain unclear. Here, we present evidence that a weakening of the atmospheric teleconnection from the Amazon forests is a previously unknown mechanism behind this and other regional droughts over the last decades. To quantify this weakening, we introduce the concept of forest fraction anomaly (FFA) based on how the dominant patterns of atmospheric moisture transport pass over the forests. By combining climate records with FFAs computed for 1979-2019, we identify a decadal shift in the severity of droughts that coincides with an increasing weakening of the forest-savanna connection. Our results reveal a physically plausible mechanism linking the Amazon forests with the occurrence of droughts in neighboring savannas and provide an analytical framework for investigating forest-related droughts elsewhere.

This research paper presents the findings and lessons from the international CLIMAX project-Climate Services Through Knowledge Co-production: A Euro-South American Initiative for Strengthening Societal Adaptation Response to Extreme Events. The project, engaging with the Brazilian National Electric System Operator (ONS), explores co-production as a method to implement climate services in the context of Brazil, particularly within the country’s hydroelectric power sector. Through interactive research and transdisciplinary collaboration, the CLIMAX project evaluates both the implementation of climate services and the concept of utility in knowledge co-production. The research identifies inherent diversity and “utility paradoxes” within the co-production process. These paradoxes involve the perceived relevance of climate information versus its integration into systems, and its instrumental use versus its justification for decisions. The study highlights the significance of stakeholder engagement, close and meaningful communication, and adaptability to context-specific needs. By sharing experiences from a five-year interactive research initiative, it offers insights into improving practices for future coproduction endeavors. This entails recognizing varied research contexts, managing co-design processes with an awareness of time and resources, and encouraging flexibility and personal transformation within co-design.

Coastal waters play a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle, showing increased short-term variability of dissolved oxygen saturation (DOsat) and partial pressure of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (pCO(2) ), especially in underrepresented tropical eutrophic environments. Here, we conducted high-frequency (1-min interval) diel measurements of surface DOsat and pCO(2) in Guanabara Bay, Brazil, a highly nutrient-enriched coastal ecosystem. The predominant metabolic controls on pCO(2) were revealed by its strong negative correlation with DOsat. Air-sea CO2 fluxes derived from high-frequency diel sampling showed emissions of 533 mmol C m(-2) annually. Conventional estimates based on daylight-only measurements were similar to 73% and 319% higher in the morning (10:00-12:00 h and sunrise-8:00 h, respectively) or similar to 172% and 244% lower in the afternoon (12:00-14:00 h and 14:00-16:00 h, respectively). Our findings indicate that rapid diel shifts between CO2 sinks and sources in eutrophic coastal waters can introduce significant uncertainty in estimating air-water CO2 fluxes from regional to global carbon budgets.

Hydropower systems are vulnerable to climate change effects, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere, risking energy security and investments in emerging markets. With Brazil as the representative case, this study explores strategies to enhance the power system’s reliability and opportunities amid water stress scenarios in 2050. This work presents a high-resolution power model, which optimizes capacity and dispatch simultaneously while minimizing the costs. Findings indicate a major role of wind energy and a decline in natural gas in water stress scenarios. However, extensive wind penetration is only possible when combined with storage systems, which remain mainly reservoir-based. Also, severe cases of water stress can increase the power system cost by up to 14.9% when combined with 100% renewable systems. The moderate cost scenarios have similar optimal results to advanced costs (less costly), indicating the high competition between wind and solar alternatives. Furthermore, expanding the wind farms portfolio may lead to surplus wind energy, particularly during the dry season when energy demand is lower. Such excess energy could potentially produce 0.46 Mt of green hydrogen annually, surpassing the current industry usage of 0.33 Mt in Brazil. Effective spatial planning is crucial, particularly considering that green hydrogen production requires water, and the surplus energy predominantly comes from the Northeast, where intense drought events are frequent.

South America is a large continent with a wide diversity of weather and climate features, including tropical, subtropical and extratropical regimes interacting within a complex landscape. Simulations by global climate models, as well as their downscaling through regional circulation models or statistical methods, are important tools, particularly when assessing the impacts of climate change in the continent. This work evaluates 57 models of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in their simulation of various spatial patterns and circulation features over South America. Our evaluation aims to provide useful input for the selection of climate models to force regional simulations in South America. Therefore, we focus on spatial fields that are relevant for regional simulations, such as horizontal winds, sea level pressure, sea surface temperature (SST), and moisture and energy fluxes across the domain boundaries. Additionally, we evaluated different circulation features influencing the regional climate of South America that have not been widely evaluated in these models. Several indices are studied to assess the main low-level and upper-level continental-scale circulation patterns, the regional Walker and Hadley cells, the subtropical highs and the boundary SST patterns. Our results show that no single model performs best across all evaluated features, highlighting the importance of in-depth model evaluation for the region concerning the features of interest.

Esse relatório é produto do Projeto Capacidade adaptativa em perspectiva policêntrica: monitoramento, avaliação e impactos sinérgicos de Políticas Públicas de Educação Ambiental para o enfrentamento das Mudanças Climáticas, em múltiplas escalas – Projeto MonitoraEA-CIEA, selecionado pela Chamada CNPq/MCTI/FNDCT Nº 59/2022 na Linha 4 – Projetos de Conscientização e Aumento da Difusão do Conhecimento sobre as Mudanças Climáticas Globais e Avaliação do Impacto da Implementação de Políticas Públicas para Enfrentamento das Mudanças Climáticas. O Projeto é coordenado pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais – INPE e pela Articulação Nacional de Políticas Públicas de Educação Ambiental – ANPPEA, com apoio do Órgão Gestor da Política Nacional de Educação Ambiental,composto pelo Ministério do Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima – MMA e pelo Ministério da Educação – MEC, e apresenta como parceiros as seguintes instituições: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais Cemaden, Escola de Comunicações e Artes da Universidade de São Paulo – ECA/USP, Instituto do Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos do Governo do Estado da Bahia – Inema, Rede Brasileira de Educação Ambiental – REBEA, Universidade de Brasília – UnB, Universidade do Vale do Itajaí – UNIVALI, Universidade Estadual do Amazonas – UEA, Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia – UESB, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro – UNIRIO, Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul – UFMS, e Universidade Federal do Pará – UFPA. O objetivo geral do Projeto é desenvolver um sistema de monitoramento e avaliação colaborativo, baseado em indicadores, para auto-avaliação das Comissões Interinstitucionais de Educação Ambiental – CIEA das 27 Unidades de Federação do Brasil; e de riscos climáticos para temas prioritários regionais, a partir da compreensão de que as Políticas Públicas de Educação Ambiental – PPEA podem representar elementos de ampliação de capacidade adaptativa nos territórios. O Projeto integra o Ecossistema MonitoraEA Sistema Brasileiro de Monitoramento e Avaliação de Políticas Públicas e

The chapter examines the forms and possibilities of progressive politics in the context of climate change. Environmental movement actors have often advanced mainstream green progressive discourse in political and media spheres. At the same time, grassroots actors and more radical versions of green progressive discourse and actions have a harder time gaining traction in policy networks and achieving mass media visibility. We provide an overview of the emergence and globalization of the environmental coalition regarding climate change. Then, drawing on the cases of India, Finland, Brazil, and Canada, we examine the diverse politics of actors that make up the environmental coalition. Our analysis illustrates how progressive coalitions and politics emerge in varied political and cultural contexts, how these alignments are shaped by the global climate regime and critical events, and how and why these alignments gain or lose strength over time.

Over the past few years, the Amazonia region has experienced a notable increase in fire occurrences, primarily attributed to agricultural management and territorial possession. This increase has, in turn, led to as rise in atmospheric concentrations of pollutants. This chapter presents an observational analysis of the number of fire hotspots and fire radiative power (FRP) across the Legal Amazonia region, alongside the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere and near the surface, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from OMI sensor on board the AURA satellite; and carbon monoxide (CO), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from MERRA-2 reanalysis. The primary objective is to assess the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of these air pollutants from 2016 to 2021. Throughout the study period in the Legal Amazonian region, Para State recorded the highest number of fires (193,218), followed by Mato Grosso (177,641), Maranhao (84,760), Amazonas (78,557), Tocantins (73,925), Rondonia (65,447), Acre (45,428), Roraima (15,521), and Amapa (8,450) States. The highest numbers of fire hotspots, FRP and concentrations of NO2, SO2, OC, BC, and CO are observed from July through October, aligning with the months of lowest precipitation and relative humidity. The results also reveal that burning biomass raises gas concentration across the region, particularly in the southern part of Mato Grosso near the city of Cuiabá. Gas concentrations increase threefold throughout the entire studied region from March, April, and May to August, September, and October for NO2 (2.5 to 7.5 1014 mol cm−2), BC (0.13 to 0.45 micro g m−3), and OC (3 to 9 micro g m−3), indicating the deterioration of the air quality during the fire season.

Wildfire substantially affects Amazonian forest ecosystems, including a large and persistent loss of aboveground biomass. This study investigates the drivers of changes in aboveground biomass in recently burned forests in western Amazonia. We collected soil samples in eight terra firme forest plots with varying fire history (up to 19 years since the last fire and burn up to 3 times in the last 20 years) in Acre state (Brazil). The samples, up to 30 centimetres (0-5cm, 5-10cm, 10-20cm and 20-30cm), were analysed for bulk density, nitrogen and carbon stocks. These soil data, along with fire history variables, were used to evaluate their relationship with aboveground biomass, estimated by the EBA project map (Estimativa de Biomassa da Amazônia). Given the small number of samples (8) and relatively large number of covariates (number of fires, time since last fire, soil bulk density and soil stocks of nitrogen and carbon), we used ridge regression to explore relationships (coefficients presented in parenthesis below) and to minimize the effects of collinearity and overfitting, which is common in generalised linear models. Our results indicate that the number of fires (-37.33) and soil compaction (BD = -39.79) has significant negative impacts on aboveground biomass. In contrast, nitrogen has a positive effect (25.26), while time since last fire (0.86) and soil carbon (0.88) have minor influences on aboveground biomass (intercept = 54.98). Our findings are in line with previous research showing the substantial and negative impacts of recurrent fire events and soil compaction on aboveground biomass in Amazonian forests. These results suggest that twenty years is insufficient for these forests to recover and that preventing recurring fire is one of the most effective active ecosystem conservation measures in terra firme Amazonia forests. The PyroCarbon Project (FAPESP 2021/00976-4; 2023/15402-9) will further investigate these relationships at the Pan-Amazon scale.

The increase in aridity has been reported in different regions of the world in recent decades. This study analyzes changes in aridity in Brazil over the period 19612020, both in terms of their spatial distributions and across different main Brazilian biomes, using the index recommended by the desertification convention applied to a high-resolution observational gridded dataset. Results revealed a trend towards drier conditions in the center and northeast of the country, while the southern region showed changes to wetter conditions. Over the study period, an expansion of semi-arid areas at the expense of dry subhumid and humid regions was observed. These trends accelerated over the period 19912020, indicating an intensification. In this period, an area of >4200 km2 within the arid category was observed for the first time according to the convention classification. In addition, novel areas, with sizes ranging from 1200 to 11,500 km2, included in the dry subhumid category were detected in the center of Brazil. Moreover, all the scenarios revealed by the observations are fully consistent with the projection of future climate change. Regardless of the observed trends in aridification, a preliminary analysis based on the time series of the vegetation health index (VHI) shows negative trends in all Brazilian biomes, suggesting an increase in vegetation stress. Current trends may significantly impact the country’s economy in the near future, affecting production systems, including agricultural activities and the availability of water resources for multiple uses. This study points out areas in the country that should be prioritized in soil and vegetation recovery actions and regional environmental development policies.

Background Understanding the role of space weather, specifically Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMDs) caused by solar activity, on health outcomes is unclear. One emerging link includes the impact of space weather on myocardial infarctions (MI). In this study we examined the correlation between MI and GMDs in Brazil. Methods We used a database from the public health in Brazil, focusing on the city of São José dos Campos (23° 10′ 44″ S, 45° 53′ 13″ W), located in the state of São Paulo, during the period of 19982005. We focused on admissions for MIs, which included a total of 871 men and 469 women. We categorized the MI data into three age groups: age 30 and younger, age 3160, and age over 60. Additionally, we incorporated Planetary Index (Kp) data as an indicator of variations in the Earths geomagnetic field resulting from solar disturbances, categorized as quiet, moderate, or disturbed days. In our analysis, we employed two methods: statistical counting and the unsupervised clustering known as K-Means, considering the attributes of age, sex, and geomagnetic condition. Results Here we show that geomagnetic conditions have an impact on MI cases, particularly for women. The rate of relative frequency of MI cases during disturbed geomagnetic conditions is almost three times greater compared to quiet geomagnetic conditions. Using the unsupervised K-Means algorithm, the results indicate that the group associated with disturbed geomagnetic conditions has a higher incidence of MIs in women. Conclusions Overall, our results provide evidence that women may exhibit a higher susceptibility to the effects of geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar activity on MI.

An extreme rainfall event caused historic floods in the western Brazilian Amazon in 2021, with significant socio-economic impacts. Since global climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of such extreme events, our objective was to assess the extent to which this disaster can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. To achieve this goal, we used CHIRPS data for observational validation of the HadGEM3-A model, which was employed for the attribution analysis, assessed land cover areas directly affected by the floods, and analysed the socioeconomic impacts. The results revealed a positive precipitation anomaly, with rainfall from December to March reaching 48 % above the average (1,329 mm). This extreme event is 153 % more likely to occur in the context of current human-induced climate change than in a natural scenario, with the return period reduced from 107 to 42 years. Furthermore, we found that the Attributable Risk Fraction (FAR) was 61 %, i.e., the likelihood of such an event occurring can be attributed to anthropogenic influence on climate. Despite FAR limitations, we estimated that the proportion of climate change-attributable damages amounts to nearly US$10 million and affects over 43,000 individuals directly, likely underestimated. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for global climate action. Nationally, multi-sector data collection and climate integration into disaster risk reduction planning are essential for societal adaptation. Public management must include climate change in territorial planning, as environmental preservation and income redistribution can mitigate flood impacts, which tend to be increasingly frequent, as our findings show.