Publicações

Understanding precipitation properties at regional scales and generating reliable future projections is crucial in providing actionable information for decision-makers, especially in regions with high vulnerability to climate change, where future changes impact ecosystem resilience, biodiversity, agriculture, water resources and human health. The South America Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model experiment (SA-CPRCM) examines climate change effects in convection-permitting simulations at 4.5 km resolution, on climate time scales (10 year present-day and 10-year future RCP8.5 around 2100), over a domain covering most of South America, using the Met Office Unified Model (UM) convection-permitting RCM. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, precipitation in the CPRCM decreases, becomes less frequent and more seasonal over the Eastern Amazon region. Dry spells lengthen, increasing the risk of drought. In the Western Amazon, precipitation increases in the wetter austral autumn (Apr. Jun.) and decreases in the drier austral winter and spring (July Oct.), leading to a more distinct dry season and imposing a greater risk of contraction of the tropical forest. Over South-eastern Brazil, future precipitation increases and becomes more frequent and more intense, increasing the risk of floods and landslides. A future increase in the intensity of precipitation and extremes is evident over all these regions, regardless of whether the mean precipitation is increasing or decreasing. The CPRCM and its driving GCM respond in a similar way to the future forcing. The models produce broadly similar large-scale spatial patterns of mean precipitation and comparable changes to frequency, intensity, and extremes, although the magnitude of change varies by region and season.

No presente artigo, são exploradas as relações entre a dinâmica das fronteiras na Amazônia Legal brasileira em resposta ao processo de criação de municípios, os impactos do desmatamento ao longo do tempo e as suas relações com as mudanças climáticas e sustentabilidade, que agravam a fragilização socioeconômica e ambiental da região. A revisão bibliográfica nos permitiu refletir, analisar e interpretar os dados obtidos, confirmando os desafios crescentes enfrentados desde a década de 50 devido à urbanização desordenada, expansão das fronteiras agropecuárias e aumento do desmatamento. Sendo que, os munícipios criados após 1970 não apresentam diferença significativa de desempenho em comparação com aqueles mais antigos, conforme indicado pelo Barômetro da Sustentabilidade, e ainda se constata que todos os municípios da AL se encontram em níveis intermediários de Bem-Estar Humano e Ambiental. Nesse contexto as extensas alterações ecológicas causadas pelo desmatamento e seus impactos ambientais não são compensadas por um desempenho diferenciado das condições socioeconômicas.

O aumento da intensidade e frequência de eventos climáticos extremos, agravados pelas mudanças no uso do solo, apresenta desafios significativos à gestão ambiental em regiões urbanas e periurbanas. Nesse contexto, este estudo analisou estratégias de manejosustentável articuladas com políticas públicas locais e regionais, com o objetivo de mitigar os impactos ambientais e sociais associados a essas mudanças. A pesquisa teve como base uma Mesa-Redonda realizada durante o XIII Congresso Internacional de Ciência, Tecnologia e Desenvolvimento (CICTED 2024), cujo tema foi Mudanças no uso do solo: desafios e perspectivas em condições de eventos extremos.A metodologia adotada incluiu uma análise de discurso qualitativa, com base nas falas transcritas dos participantes, e a construção de uma nuvem de palavras que evidenciou os principais tópicos discutidos.Os resultados identificaram três eixos principais: a implementação de soluções baseadas na natureza (SBN), como telhados verdes e pavimentos permeáveis; a promoção da educação ambiental como ferramenta para fortalecer a resiliência climática e social; e a revisão de políticas públicas, com destaque para a necessidade de atualização de planos diretores municipais orientados por dados científicos e práticas colaborativas. As discussões destacaram a relevância de alinhar essas iniciativas aos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS), incluindo Água Potável e Saneamento (ODS 6), Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis (ODS 11) e Ação Climática (ODS 13).O estudo apresenta recomendações para gestores públicos e sociedade civil, reforçando a importância da colaboração interdisciplinar e do engajamento comunitário no enfrentamento dos desafios ambientais. Além disso, destaca o papel da educação ambiental como meio de conscientização e preparodas comunidades, fomentando a adoção de práticas sustentáveis e adaptativas para promover um futuro mais equilibrado e resiliente.

The increase in land surface temperature (LST) in megacities has contributed to global warming due to poor urban planning and high population concentration. This study analyzes spatio-temporal trend patterns of LST in the city of Metropolitan Lima, Peru, during the summers of 19862024. The Mann-Kendall tests and the Theil-Sen Slope method were used to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of LST, relating R2 and the Mann-Kendall p-value of the annual average LST in each district. A hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to group districts according to their average yearly LST. Urban heat islands were identified based on basin configuration and distance to the sea at 1 km intervals. The results reveal a significant increase in LST (p < 0.001) related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena, in addition to urban growth and land cover change. The significant positive trend of LST showed a heterogeneous distribution in all districts. The districts were grouped into three clusters with statistically significant differences in LST (p < 0.001), spatially configured radially from the sea to the foot of the Andes, up to 1179 m a.s.l. Urban heat islands did not correlate with significant positive trends in basins. Still, they showed a considerable increase in LST in areas of high economic activity, including dense commercial, industrial, and residential areas. This information is crucial to managing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and contributing to sustainable urban planning focused on the population’s well-being.

New particle formation (NPF) in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of atmospheric aerosols1, 2, 3-4. It is known to occur over the Amazon basin, but the nucleation mechanism and chemical precursors have yet to be identified2. Here we present comprehensive in situ aircraft measurements showing that extremely low-volatile oxidation products of isoprene, particularly certain organonitrates, drive NPF in the Amazonian upper troposphere. The organonitrates originate from OH-initiated oxidation of isoprene from forest emissions in the presence of nitrogen oxides from lightning. Nucleation bursts start about 2 h after sunrise in the outflow of nocturnal deep convection, producing high aerosol concentrations of more than 50,000 particles cm-3. We report measurements of characteristic diurnal cycles of precursor gases and particles. Our observations show that the interplay between biogenic isoprene, deep tropical convection with associated lightning, oxidation photochemistry and the low ambient temperature uniquely promotes NPF. The particles grow over time, undergo long-range transport and descend through subsidence to the lower troposphere, in which they can serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the Earth’s hydrological cycle, radiation budget and climate.

Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar a saúde pública por meio dos registros publicados em forma de decretos acerca da pandemia de COVID-19 nos estados das regiões Norte e Centro Oeste do Brasil considerando as estratégias de controle e normatização dos estados para conter o contágio do vírus no ano de 2020. Como procedimentos metodológicos, realizou-se revisão da literatura acerca da Geografia da Saúde e análise do conteúdo dos decretos oficiais dos estados (392 publicados em 2020) relacionados à COVID-19 no Norte e no Centro-Oeste do país. A análise mostrou que os instrumentos normativos são uma estratégia de controle do território exercida pelas autoridades de cada estado ao adotarem medidas sanitárias às vezes flexibilizadas. Além disso, revelou que as orientações legais de uso do território são correlatas ao número de óbitos na maioria dos estados, de modo que à medida que as ações normativas eram flexibilizadas, o contágio letal aumentava. A pandemia de COVID-19 deixou, portanto, marcas significativas no território, na redefinição dos espaços públicos (controle aéreo, marítimo e terrestre), na perda de centenas de vidas, nos riscos à saúde pública e nos efeitos graves em diferentes setores da economia.

In this study we defined the association of SACZ episodes with ENOS phases during the 2000–2021 summer seasons, considering November to March months, and the circulation associated patterns. Each SACZ episode was classified when OLR values were below 220 W m− 2 and precipitable water values above 45 kg m− 2 for more than three consecutive days. The association between ONI and the annual number of days with SACZ and the number of SACZ episodes shows linear correlation of -0.44 and − 0.34, respectively, showing the prevalence of SACZ episodes during the La Niña phase. Analysis of the entire series shows a linear annual mean increase of ~ 16 days with SACZ episodes from 2000 up to 2021. Sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña periods present meridional dipole patterns between northern and southern South Atlantic, including the southamerican continent. OLR anomalies fields present negative (positive) values during LN (EN) periods over the northern South America extending to SACZ areas, helping to explain the higher number of SACZ episodes in LN (63 episodes) than in EN (29 episodes) periods. Both SLP and OLR anomalous patterns are associated with higher moisture convergence in the SACZ area in LN than in EN periods. Analysis of very dry (2014–2015) and very rainy (2020–2021) summer seasons over southeastern South America, illustrating El Niño and La Niña periods, respectively, shows strengthened upward movement over southwestern South America and weakened upward movement over northeastern in the former summer season and the opposite signals in the second one. These patterns were associated with typical circulation at low and high tropospheric levels: the upper level cyclonic vortex and the subtropical South Atlantic high pressure displacement to continental areas during the very dry period, 2014–2015, and the displacement of both systems, in upper and low levels, to the ocean during the very rainy period, 2020–2021.

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the Paris Agreement committed countries to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by urgently reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Paris temperature ambitions and remaining carbon budgets mostly use models that lack feedback among fire, vegetation and carbon, which are essential for understanding the future resilience of ecosystems. Here we use a coupled firevegetation model to explore regional impacts and feedbacks across global warming levels. We address whether the 1.5 °C goal is consistent with avoiding significant ecosystem changes when considering shifts in fire regimes. We find that the global warming level at which fire began to impact global carbon storage significantly was 1.07 °C (0.81.34 °C) above pre-industrial levels and conclude that fire is already playing a major role in decreasing the effectiveness of land carbon sinks. We estimate that considering fire reduces the remaining carbon budget by 25 Gt CO2 (~5%) for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C and 64 GtCO2 (~5%) for 2.0 °C compared to previous estimates. Whereas limiting warming to 1.5 °C is still essential for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, in many cases, we are already reaching the point of significant change in ecosystems rich in carbon and biodiversity.

Desde meados dos anos 1980, a Earth System Science vem se desenvolvendo e consolidando com o abrangente campo capaz de produzir conhecimento para o enfrentamento das crises vinculadas ao que se convencionou chamar de antropoceno. Mesmo considerado de fronteira, e que de fato tenha conseguido materializar avanços importantes na esfera epistemológica, seus limites e perspectivas de desenvolvimento seguem restritas e emparedadas por limites dados pela dimensão epistemológica, mantendo omitida e velada sua metafísica de base. Este ensaio pretende organizar ideias iniciais que permitam capturar essa metafísica não declarada e investigá-la à luz dos desafios a ela impostos. O objetivo é propor elementos de abertura para uma filosofia especulativa do Sistema Terrestre, em superação a uma implícita, obscura e defasada filosofia da natureza que a suporta.

This article is one of the technical products of the doctoral thesis research entitled “Urban land regularization and access to environmental justice: mediation in urban and environmental land regularization in the state of Pará”. The objective was to build the diagnostic study applying the methodology proposed by the action research, inserted in the territorial approach to development. Use specialized technical mediation to build a diagnosis of territorial requalification, relating Reurb and disaster prevention. Diagnosis as a management tool for a complex work inserted in the challenge of territorial requalification. The Anthropocene will be presented from a temporal perspective, including as a methodological tool. The territorial cut is the Cemetery of Nossa Senhora da Soledade in Belém do Pará historical heritage listed by the National Historical and Artistic Heritage Institute. Finally, some results of the dynamics of monitoring the execution of the territorial requalification work with emphasis on the safeguarding of the historical and archaeological heritage are presented, addressing the two vulnerabilities in environmental disasters, flooding and animal abandonment. In the final considerations, some proposals are presented for the construction of a management plan.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key component of the biogeochemical carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean. However, there are still significant gaps in understanding the role of DOC in polar environments, due to the limitations of spatiotemporal sampling. In this study, we investigated the regional aspects controlling the distribution and diffusive and advective fluxes of DOC along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) during austral late summers of 1995 and between 2015 and 2019. DOC concentrations ranged from 33.1 to 157.6 μmol kg1. The NAP showed regional differences in both its hydrographic conditions and DOC distribution. The regional variability reflected the main biogeochemical sources and fates of DOC associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current inflows, the Weddell Gyre transport and the meltwater input. The intensity of the advective fluxes of DOC was 106 times greater than the diffusive fluxes. However, ocean fronts along NAP environments are mesoscale structures for observations of downward and upward diffusive fluxes of DOC. This study adds insights on the role of DOC as a proxy for a better understanding of the coupling between physical and biogeochemical processes over time in an environment sensitive to climate change.

Renewable energies are highly dependent on local weather conditions, with photovoltaic energy being particularly affected by intermittent clouds. Anticipating the impact of cloud shadows on power plants is crucial, as clouds can cause partial shading, excessive irradiation, and operational issues. This study focuses on analyzing cloud tracking methods for short-term forecasts, aiming to mitigate such impacts. We conducted a systematic literature review, highlighting the most significant articles on cloud tracking from ground-based observations. We explore both traditional image processing techniques and advances in deep learning models. Additionally, we discuss current challenges and future research directions in this rapidly evolving field, aiming to provide a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and identify opportunities for significant advancements in the next generation of cloud tracking systems based on computer vision and deep learning.