The Magdalena River basin, Colombias largest river system, is pivotal to the countrys hydropower-driven decarbonization plans. As the basin becomes a focal point for renewable energy, a pressing consideration emerges: how will climate change influence strategic hydropower planning, and how can resilience and economic feasibility of hydropower be maintained? Despite the promise of hydropower development in the region, the limited integration of climate change considerations into prevailing dam planning frameworks poses significant challenges. Driven by climatic factors, alterations in river discharge risk undermining hydropower production and raise concerns over the broader economic implications and reliability of hydropower dams. Here we evaluate the possible climate change-driven alterations in river discharge and their consequent impacts on hydropower generation by current and proposed dams in the Magdalena River basin. We also examine the economic consequences of these potential changes. Ultimately, our goal is to find future dam portfolios that improve hydropower systems reliability and economic viability under climate change. We evaluate the climate change impact on 125 proposed hydropower dams in the Magdalena River basin by comparing projected power generation under current baseline hydrology (19862005) and future conditions (2046-2065) based on two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Utilizing a multi-objective optimization framework, we identify Pareto-optimal dam portfolios that minimize the cost of electricity production and environmental impacts of dams while meeting electricity generation demands. Projections for mid-century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reveal significant reductions in hydropower generation (15% and 22 %, respectively) with the steepest declines observed in the central basin. Climatic changes lead to frequent low-discharge interruptions, less optimal full-capacity operations at many dams and fundamentally modify strategic hydropower planning recommendations. Our findings underscore the need for climate-smart planning for future hydropower development in the Magdalena River basin, especially considering Colombia’s plans to increasingly rely on hydropower to provide grid stability for variable renewable energy sources. The Magdalena River basin, central to Colombia’s hydropower decarbonization, faces challenges from climate change’s impact on hydropower planning and its economic feasibility. With growing emphasis on renewables, integrating climate considerations into dam planning is essential. Climatic influences can alter river discharges, potentially jeopardizing hydropower outputs and raising economic and reliability concerns. Our study assesses climate-induced changes in river discharges, and their effects on current and proposed dams’ hydropower generation in the basin. We also explore the economic implications of these changes. By comparing power generation under current hydrology (19862005) with projections for 2046-2065 based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios, we evaluate impacts on 125 proposed dams. Our multi-objective optimization identifies optimal dam portfolios that balance production costs and environmental concerns, meeting generation demands. Findings indicate significant hydropower reductions by mid-century, especially in the central basin, leading to disruptions and sub-optimal operations. Given Colombia’s increased reliance on hydropower for grid stability with other renewables, our results highlight the urgency for climate-informed planning in future Magdalena River basin hydropower endeavors.
Redes Sociais