Publicações

This study investigates future scenarios of land use and land cover (LULC) changes under climate change conditions and their potential impacts on hydrological security. The research adopts a water-climate-territory nexus approach, focusing on the spatial, scale, variability, and social dynamics of hydrological systems. It models natural and anthropogenic processes, enabling a more precise identification of water security impacts on cities dependent on these systems. The aim is to evaluate water security across multiple scales, considering various territorial contexts and their intrinsic relationships with water and climate. Public participation and perception, particularly among water users, are acknowledged as critical for enhancing urban resilience and adaptive capacity. This approach is applied to the Poções-Epitácio Pessoa water system in Paraíba, Brazil, the first in Northeast Brazil to receive water from the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF). The study uses predictive LULC and climate change scenarios to analyze impacts, adaptive capacity, and water security throughout the involved territories. Despite Brazil’s substantial water reserves, the country faces severe water scarcity issues, particularly in semi-arid regions. The research highlights the need for new integrative approaches that consider the combined impacts of climate, hydrological, and urban factors, as well as existing legislative gaps and risks. This integrative model, which includes hydrological modeling using the SWAT tool and a participatory approach to data collection, aims to provide a holistic understanding of water security challenges and foster more efficient water resource management.