Publicações

During 2020 and 2021 we performed a series of investigations about communication aspects related to the civil defense in Brazil, such as interviews, questionnaires, online roundtables and documental analysis. All federative levels (national, state and municipal) were included and we analyzed communication among them, from them to general public, and from them to other institutions. We also analyzed the way in which the communication happens (written/spoken/digital, formal/informal), and the outreach, impacts and challenges of each one. The main investigative analysis was the questionnaire, which as answered by more than 1000 municipal civil defense agencies. Some details were explored through individual interviews. As main results, we point the lack of integration and articulation between municipal, state, and national levels to improve the communication flow. Also, communities participation should be fostered to legitimate communication and strengthen the trust on the system.

The study of rainfall properties at various spatiotemporal scales is deeply important for understanding a large range of socio-environmental processes and variables (e.g., water resources, agriculture, socio-ecosystemic services, natural risk assessment). However, such studies on rainfall characteristics, especially at sub-hourly resolutions, are scarce in large areas of South America due to the lack of a high-resolution temporal database. The Brazilian National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) has gradually implemented, starting in 2013, a sub-hourly monitoring network composed of approximately 3500 automated rain gauges distributed across Brazil, enabling access to new hydrological studies in this vast tropical country featuring a range of biomes. This study analysed the characteristics of rainfall events for the whole of Brazil on sub-daily and sub-hourly timescales, using 7 years of data (from 2014 to 2021) provided by CEMADEN. Rainfall events were defined by the minimum inter-event time (MIT) and the minimum depth (1 mm). Seven MITs (30, 60, 120, 180, 360, 720, and 1440 min) were considered to evaluate the behaviour of rainfall event characteristics and their relationships. The Gaussian mixture model method was applied to identify regions with similar rainfall patterns according to the MIT. Six groups with homogeneous characteristics were identified, evidencing the climatic diversity of Brazil. The results show that the MIT strongly influences precipitation properties (especially the dry time and the number of events). The highest number of events occurred in the North-east Coast region, which exceeded 200 events per year (MIT < 60 min), while the lowest number of events was observed in the Semiarid region, which reached only 38 events per year with an MIT of 1440 min. Moreover, the events with the highest rainfall intensities were found in the Central region. The results found in this study provide a better understanding of precipitation and its characteristics in Brazil, highlighting the climatological diversity of this country.

The creation of the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) in the mid-2000s provided a new data format for cities to organize and share digital information on their public transport systems. GTFS feeds store geolocated data on public transport networks, including information on routes, stops, timetables, and service levels. The GTFS standard is now widely adopted by thousands of transport authorities and a wide variety of software applications for different purposes, including trip planning, timetable creation and accessibility analysis. Yet, there is still a lack of tools to parse GTFS data when the objective is to analyze the complex spatial and temporal patterns of public transport systems. This paper presents {gtfs2gps}, a new general-purpose computational tool to easily process static GTFS data that allows one to analyze the spacetime trajectories of public transport vehicles at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. {gtfs2gps} is an open-source R package that employs parallel computing to convert GTFS feeds from relational text files into a trajectory data table, similar to GPS records, with the timestamps of vehicles in every trip. This paper explains the package functionalities and demonstrates how {gtfs2gps} can be used to articulate key concepts in time geography to explore and visualize the spatial and temporal patterns of public transport networks. We also present a case study looking at how {gtfs2gps} can be used to examine socioeconomic and spatialtemporal inequalities in access to public transport, providing key information to monitor cities progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper is accompanied by a computational notebook in R Markdown to support reproducibility of the results in this paper and to replicate the analysis for other contexts where GTFS data are available. Given the widespread use of GTFS, {gtfs2gps} opens new possibilities for researchers to examine the time geography of public transport systems in urban areas across the globe.

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha-1, a mean of 174 Mg ha-1, and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha-1. This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

Studies of global carbon balance estimates are still incipient in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, mainly in coastal areas and continental shelf. Even in Brazil, despite its continental proportion coastline, there is still a great inconsistency in studies on the marine carbonate system and CO2 fluxes at the air-sea interface. This article presents a review of studies on CO2 fluxes on the coast of Brazil, published between the years 2000 and 2022, aiming to map the distribution of CO2 fluxes on the Brazilian continental shelf, to understand its role as a source or sink of CO2. In general, large-scale studies show that the Brazilian shelf exhibits a latitudinal variation of air-sea CO2 fluxes, behaving mainly as a source in the north, where there is no influence of the Amazon River plume, and as a sink in the south portion. We also identified there is a strong influence on the occurrence of mesoscale and synoptic oceanographic and meteorological events, and the presence of different ecosystems, which can change the behavior of CO2 fluxes locally. However, there are still many data gaps along the continental shelf, as well as in different seasons for the entire coast.

In hydrological modelling, it is important to consider the uncertainties related to a models structures and parameters when different hydrological models are used to represent a system. Therefore, an adequate analysis of daily discharge forecasts that takes into account the performance of hydrological models can assist in identifying the best extreme discharge forecasts. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the performance of three hydrological modelsLavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), and Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE) in the Verde River basin. The results demonstrate that LASH and MHD can accurately simulate discharges, thereby establishing them as crucial tools for managing water resources in the study regions basins. Moreover, these findings could serve as a cornerstone for future studies focusing on food and water security, particularly when examining their connection to climate change scenarios.

Along with the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth’s system and is causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests’ high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. However, some model outcomes effectively deprioritize conservation of boreal and temperate forests by suggesting that increased albedo upon deforestation could cool the planet. A potential conflict of global cooling vs. regional forest conservation could harm environmental policies. Here we present theoretical and observational evidence to demonstrate that, compared to the carbon-related warming, modeling skills for assessing climatic impacts of deforestation is low. We argue that estimates for deforestation-induced global cooling result from the models’ limited capacity to account for the global effect of cooling from evapotranspiration of intact forests. Specifically, transpiration of trees can change the greenhouse effect via small modifications of the vertical temperature profile. However, due to their convective parameterization (which postulates a certain critical temperature profile), global climate models do not properly capture this effect. This may lead to an underestimation of warming from the loss of forest evapotranspiration in both high and low latitudes. As a result, conclusions about deforestation-induced global cooling are not robust and could result in action that immediately worsened global warming. To avoid deepening the environmental crisis, these conclusions should not inform policies of vegetation cover management, especially as studies from multiple fields are accumulating that better quantify the stabilizing impact of natural ecosystems evolved to maintain environmental homeostasis. Given the critical state and our limited understanding of both climate and ecosystems, an optimal policy with immediate benefits would be a global moratorium on the exploitation of all natural forests.

While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from no effect to a major reduction in storm intensity. To better assess this impact, here we consider the work output of an infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle with two streamlines connecting the top of the boundary layer in the vicinity of maximum wind (without assuming gradient-wind balance) to an arbitrary level in the inviscid free tropo-sphere. The reduction of a storm’s maximum wind speed due to water lifting is found to decline with increasing efficiency of the cycle and is about 5% for maximum observed Carnot efficiencies. In the steady-state cycle, there is an extra heat input associated with the warming of precipitating water. The corresponding positive extra work is of an opposite sign and several times smaller than that due to water lifting. We also estimate the gain of kinetic energy in the outflow region. Contrary to previous assessments, this term is found to be large when the outflow radius is small (comparable to the radius of maximum wind). Using our framework, we show that Emanuel’s maximum potential intensity (E-PI) corresponds to a cycle where total work equals work performed at the top of the boundary layer (net work in the free troposphere is zero). This con-strains a dependence between the outflow temperature and heat input at the point of maximum wind, but does not constrain the radial pressure gradient. We outline the implications of the established patterns for assessing real storms.

As mudanças no clima global resultado da emissão efeito estufa (GEE), estão cada vez mais perceptíveis em todas as atividades humanas. Na América do Sul (AS) as mudanças climáticas são potencializadas por efeitos concomitantes tais como alterações na cobertura da terra, por exemplo o desmatamento da floresta Amazônica e o efeito do CO2 na floresta. Conversões das áreas de floresta, seja por pasto ou áreas agricultáveis, trazem significativas mudanças no balanço de radiação, energia e água. O objetivo geral deste trabalho consiste em avaliar o impacto do desmatamento da Amazônia adjunto ao aumento médio da temperatura global em 2º C no clima das bacias Amazônica, São Francisco e Plata. Através de um estudo de modelagem foi possível a identificação dos principais efeitos e interações no sistema biosferaatmosfera. O Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM) e Community Earth System Model (CESM) forçados por diferentes condições de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) dos conjuntos Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and 6 (CMIP5 e CMIP6) foram escolhidos para avaliar as alterações atmosféricas e o modelo Potential Vegeation Model versão 2 (CPTEC-PVM2) foi utilizado para avaliar os biomas potenciais. O estudo considerou o cenário de emissões Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) além da configuração original da Floresta Amazônica (00DEF) e a conversão total da área de Floresta Tropical em pasto (100DEF), e o desmatamento de todas as florestas tropicais do globo (100WDEF). O índice Global Warming Level (GWL) foi escolhido para avaliar as simulações. As avaliações dos impactos foram direcionadas para o Specific Warming Level 2 (SWL2) na tentativa de responder como o desmatamento da Amazônia ou das florestas tropicais poderiam contribuir para um adiantamento do SWL2. Os resultados indicaram um adiantamento médio SWL2 em 2 anos (CPTEC-BAM) e 3 anos (CESM) entre os cenários 00 e 100DEF. Algumas regiões na AS, em especial norte, nordeste e centro, registraram um aquecimento médio anual entre 1º até 6º C. O enfraquecimento do ciclo hidrológico na bacia Amazônica ocorreu desde o cenário 00DEF em razão da influência das concentrações de CO2 atmosférico na condutância estomática (redução). Ainda, houve diminuição do fluxo de calor latente calor latente (~ -15 W/m2), aumento do calor sensível (~ +10 W/m2), diminuição da precipitação (~ – 1,5 mm.dia-1) e diminuição da evapotranspiração (ET) em toda área da floresta Amazônica (~ -0,5 mm.dia-1). O cenário 100DEF indicou impactos severos no clima regional através da redução do transporte de umidade para o Sudeste do Brasil (~ -15%) e aumento no sul da bacia La Plata (+20%). Enquanto o modelo BAM mostrou-se mais sensível ao aquecimento global, aumentando o aporte de umidade específica na atmosfera, o modelo CESM mostrou-se sensível as alterações da vegetação, indicando reduções drásticas da umidade específica sob a floresta. Por fim, ocorreu redução do índice CAPE ao norte da bacia La Plata (100DEF) e no Alto São Francisco. O modelo CPTEC-PVM2 indicou redução da área de floresta tropical na bacia Amazônica contrastando com aumento das áreas de savana e floresta tropical sazonal, o qual tornou-se mais extrema para os inputs com o modelo CESM. Reflexo esse da maior intensidade da redução da precipitação e aumento da temperatura e, com o fortalecimento dos ventos alísios, o maior aporte de umidade foi redirecionado para o extremo oeste da bacia Amazônica. Isso refletiu na maior disposição do bioma floresta Tropical nessa área. O desmatamento quando considerado concomitantemente ao aquecimento global pode aumentar a intensidade das alterações ou indicar um diferente comportamento das condições atmosféricas.

Esta nota técnica foi elaborada em resposta ao pedido da Advocacia-Geral da União, de 17 de dezembro de 2023, no qual a AGU solicita apoio ao Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) no provimento de informações técnicas para subsidiá-la em ações reparatórias de danos ambientais à Floresta Amazônica. Em conformidade com a solicitação, os especialistas do INPE, nesta nota técnica, apresentam: Uma visão geral dos efeitos diretos e indiretos dos danos ambientais decorrentes da supressão total ou parcial da cobertura florestal, 1) no meio ambiente, 2) no clima, 3) na sociedade e na economia, considerando seus impactos na própria Amazônia e em biomas adjacentes. A nota ressalta também a variação espacial destes impactos ao longo do bioma e a vulnerabilidade das florestas remanescentes e da sociedade como consequência dos efeitos dos danos ambientais. A nota técnica produzida, objetivou evidenciar os pontos aqui apresentados, consolidando, neste documento, resultados robustos obtidos a partir do avanço científico mais atual. Ao longo de sua elaboração, utilizou-se uma linguagem coloquial, buscando facilitar a compreensão para juízes, desembargadores e procuradores. A nota visou prover subsídios para a AGU utilizar o conhecimento, consolidado na literatura científica, como meio de prova em diversas ações civis públicas de reparação do dano ambiental e climático. A nota baseia-se no extenso conjunto de evidências formalizadas em publicações científicas com autoria dos pesquisadores do INPE e outros pesquisadores nacionais e internacionais, como também utiliza os dados científicos extraídos dos artigos.

Segundo Relatório de Riscos Globais de 2024, a ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos ocupou 2ª posição dos riscos prováveis mais severos segundo as percepções de cerca de 1.500 especialistas mundiais, em um horizonte de dois anos, seguido do risco tecnológico de desinformação; e a 1ª posição na próxima década (FÓRUM ECONÔMICO MUNDIAL, 2024). Uma pesquisa brasileira realizada pela Confederação Nacional da Indústria, através do Instituto de Pesquisa de Reputação em Imagem, que entrevistou 2.021 cidadãos a partir de 16 anos nas 27 Unidades da Federação em 2022, aponta que o combate ao aquecimento global e as mudanças climáticas foi considerado o segundo aspecto prioritário para conservação do meio ambiente no Brasil, após o tratamento de água e esgoto (CNI, 2023). A mesma pesquisa revelou que 91% dos participantes perceberam alguma mudança na temperatura ou no clima nos últimos anos. Conforme outra pesquisa feita pelo Instituto de Tecnologia e Sociedade, através da Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoria e em parceria com Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, envolvendo 2.600 pessoas maiores de 18 anos em todas as Regiões brasileiras, entre os anos de 2002 e 2023, 94% dos entrevistados concordaram que o aquecimento global está acontecendo, e 87% que esse pode prejudicar muito as gerações futuras (ITS RIO, 2022).

This study aims to evaluate the synoptic conditions responsible for two extreme precipitation events development that occurred in the same region on the east coast of Northeast Brazil (NEB) in two different years, on July 1, 2022 (185 mm/24h), and July 7, 2023 (213 mm/24h). These events are becoming increasingly frequent in all regions of Brazil, especially in areas with high population density, associated with significant material and human losses, emphasizing the significance of a deeper comprehension of these events. ERA5 global reanalysis data have been used for synoptic and vertical structure evaluation as a first analysis step. Infrared GOES-16 satellite images have been used to monitor the cloudiness development. Pluviometric stations were used to document accumulated precipitation caused by these events. The following step will consist of conducting very high-resolution simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to assess its ability to represent the circulation patterns associated with the analyzed extreme precipitation events. Both analyzed cases occurred along the eastern coast of the NEB, specifically over the Alagoas state, and were triggered by the same synoptic-scale system, the Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs). The trough axis penetrating the study area was observed on both examined dates, with a very characteristic relative vorticity of this tropical disturbance. Despite satellite images in the IR channel indicating lower cloud top temperatures in the first case, thermodynamic diagram data showed a greater vertical development of cloudiness in the second case. Distinct situations were observed when analyzing moisture transport convergence fields. In the first event, moisture convergence intensified over 12 hours, while in the second event, moisture convergence over Alagoas was evident throughout the entire day. This variation can be attributed to the intensification of the subtropical anticyclone during the extreme precipitation event in July 2023, which intensified moisture transport in the region. In general, moisture convergence resulted from the high flow of moisture prevailing over the region combined with upward movements caused by the trough present at low levels, which combined with local factors in the region such as topography, contributed to the increase in rainfall over the study area in both analyzed cases.