Publicações

Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarem tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

In this work, we analyze the expansion of forestry activities with Eucalyptus in the Paraiba do Sul basin, region located in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 1986 to 2010. In this region is situated the most important and largest extension of reminiscent of Mata Atlântica Biome reminiscent. This biome has been one the most exploited Brazilian biome since 1500, when Brazilian colonization begun. To achieve this goal, we use the GIS “SPRING” and images from Landsat 5 Satellite, TM sensor from 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, distributed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research – INPE. The non-supervised-classification was applied to images in order to produce land use and land cover maps. After that, we intersect each classification for each date with the precedent date, so we can analyze the paths of each land use change, focusing forestry expansion in native’s Mata Atlântica areas. The results show that eucalyptus plantations in the region have expanded mostly over fragments of Mata Atlântica. About 99.389 hectares of Mata Atlântica were transformed into forestry in 25 years, an average rate of 4000 ha per year. Clear-cut was largest between 1990 and 1995, when 22810 hectares of rain forest were cut, and between 1995 and 2000, when 21430 hectares were cut.

In this study, we investigated the different responses of Spondias tuberosa (umbu) trees, which grow in two different ecological life zones in northeast Brazil: tropical wet and tropical arid ecosystems. We evaluated the responses of plants grown under humid and dry conditions by measuring the photosynthesis, water status, fluorescence parameters, carbon isotopes and antioxidant system activity. The higher net photosynthesis values were recorded contemporaneously with the lower VPD values. The highest internal-to-ambient CO2 concentration and the absence of typical changes in the fluorescence parameters suggested an onset of a nonstomatal limitation in the photosynthesis. Our results showed that umbu plants can adjust their antioxidant activity during the dry season as a defensive strategy against the deleterious effects of water stress. This evidence is supported by the observed modifications in the pigment concentrations, increased accumulation of hydrogen peroxide and malondialdehyde, high levels of electrolyte leakage, increased antioxidant activity, and decreased carbon isotope discrimination in the umbu trees during the dry season. Supported by multivariate analysis of variance, significantly effect of interaction between categorical months of collect and location predicts a strong dry season effect on our dataset. Taken together, our data show that umbu trees grown in a wet tropical environment are more susceptible to drought, as compared with their tropical arid counterparts.

The radiative transfer model BRASIL-SR is used by Brazilian Institute for Space Research for the assessment of the solar irradiation in Brazil. The model parameterizes the influence of aerosols in the solar radiation transmittance using climate averages of horizontal visibility, which does not represent the actual atmospheric condition in Brazil, especially during dry season. In clear sky conditions, aerosols are a major source of bias in solar radiation models. Their concentration have large spatial and temporal variability particularly in the Brazilian Midwestern region from April until October, due to forest fires, and in Southeastern region due to pollution from megacities. In this study, meteorological data from METAR comprising the years of 2006, 2007 and 2008 were analyzed to evaluate the seasonal variability of the horizontal visibility in Brazil to better represent the influence of aerosols on the model estimations of surface solar irradiation. New horizontal visibility values was generated to each month simulated, to provide input data to the BRASIL-SR model and site specific ground data were used to validate the model estimates. The global, direct beam and diffuse solar irradiation estimates obtained by making use of the new horizontal visibility data presented an overall lower BIAS and RMSE deviations.

Eleven years of lightning data from the Brazilian Integrated National Lightning Detection Network were used to analyze the effects of the urban heat island (UHI) of Sao Paulo on lightning activity, extending the investigation of previous works. Cloud-To-ground lightning data were analyzed in both spatial and temporal perspectives, using different approaches: flash density, flash rate, thunderstorm hours (TH), and the cell initiation technique (CIT), which aims to identify the onset of thunderstorms. Land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) was used to analyze the UHI evolution over the years. MODIS data were validated using ground stations, distributed within the urban area. Different time intervals (seasonal and intraday) were used in an attempt to separate local convective systems from synoptic-scale events. The results indicate significant effects of the UHI (using LST) on THs and CIT. The CIT showed a nearly ring pattern, especially during the afternoon (14:00-18:00 LT) of summer months, reinforcing temperature contrast as a condition for storm initiation. The results also suggest an amplification of the UHI effects on thunderstorm activity by local factors (sea and country breeze, synoptic events, and terrain). Higher flash rates were also observed throughout the urban region, which influences the lightning density. Temporal analysis indicates that minimum temperature and lightning activity increase in wintertime. In summary, the results agree with previous studies about the UHI and indicate its importance on lightning occurrence, especially by increasing the temperature contrast and the instability in these regions.

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km2 yr-1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative ‘Sustainability’ scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km2 yr-1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation – in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 – even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.

The semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, the Caatinga, is extremely important due to its biodiversity and endemism. Measurements of plant physiology are crucial to the calibration of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that are currently used to simulate the responses of vegetation in face of global changes. In a field work realized in an area of preserved Caatinga forest located in Petrolina, Pernambuco, measurements of carbon assimilation (in response to light and CO2) were performed on 11 individuals of Poincianella microphylla, a native species that is abundant in this region. These data were used to calibrate the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax) used in the INLAND model. The calibration techniques used were Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and data mining techniques as the Classification And Regression Tree (CART) and K-MEANS. The results were compared to the UNCALIBRATED model. It was found that simulated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) reached 72% of observed GPP when using the calibrated Vcmax values, whereas the UNCALIBRATED approach accounted for 42% of observed GPP. Thus, this work shows the benefits of calibrating DGVMs using field ecophysiological measurements, especially in areas where field data is scarce or non-existent, such as in the Caatinga.

Anthropogenic haze, caused at least in parts by forest and agricultural land clearing fires in Sumatra (Indonesia), is occasionally causing air quality issues in Singapore, located 150-300 km east of the majority of these “hot spots”. The resulting air pollution partially blocks sunlight from reaching the ground, and consequently affects the electric power generation of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Singapore. In this work, a methodology is presented to estimate the haze-induced reduction of the light intensity reaching PV panels and the corresponding loss in the electric energy yield. An assessment of a major haze event in June 2013 is the basis for the loss analysis, which takes into account data filtering techniques in order to isolate cloudless conditions for inter-comparison between clear and hazy days. Data from previous years in non-hazy conditions serve as baseline for the determination of the clear sky conditions for Singapore. The novel method is further applied to investigate the power output of ten PV systems in Singapore during the June 2013 haze event. It is found that poor air quality levels during this event caused yield losses of PV systems in Singapore in the range of 15-25%.

Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods.

A agricultura participa tanto das causas como das consequências das mudanças ambientais globais que, por sua vez, podem acentuar a vulnerabilidade da segurança alimentar da sociedade. Por meio de uma visão holística do sistema alimentar, este trabalho traz uma revisão narrativa da literatura, com o objetivo de contextualizar as relações entre a segurança alimentar e as mudanças ambientais globais. Aponta os riscos aos quais a segurança alimentar da sociedade brasileira contemporânea está sujeita, os aspectos de sua vulnerabilidade e as ações mitigatórias e adaptativas necessárias para sua garantia, destacando os desafios para a política e a pesquisa científica sobre o tema no Brasil.

Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Boli-vian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmLDGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3 degrees C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5%, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10% at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6% decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22%. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajos is reduced by 31% in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34% over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the southeast, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff (up to + 27% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajos. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation is low.