Publicações

This paper presents a dataset of yearly land use and land cover classification maps for Mato Grosso State, Brazil, from 2001 to 2017. Mato Grosso is one of the worlds fast moving agricultural frontiers. To ensure multi-year compatibility, the work uses MODIS sensor analysis-ready products and an innovative method that applies machine learning techniques to classify satellite image time series. The maps provide information about crop and pasture expansion over natural vegetation, as well as spatially explicit estimates of increases in agricultural productivity and trade-offs between crop and pasture expansion. Therefore, the dataset provides new and relevant information to understand the impact of environmental policies on the expansion of tropical agriculture in Brazil. Using such results, researchers can make informed assessments of the interplay between production and protection within Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal biomes.

Demand for agricultural exports in Brazil has stimulated the expansion of crop production and cattle raising, which has caused environmental impacts. In response, Brazil developed public policies such as the new Forest Code (FC) and supply chain arrangements such the Soy and the Cattle Moratoriums. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of these policies, considering the trajectories of agricultural expansion in the state of Mato Grosso in three years: 2005 (pre-moratorium and before the new FC), 2010 (post-moratorium and before the new FC) and 2017 (post-moratorium and post-new FC). Our analysis uses a detailed land use change data for both the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in Mato Grosso. In all the years considered, soybean expansion occurred in consolidated production areas and by conversion of pastures. Pasture expansion is influenced by existence of pastures nearby, by areas of secondary vegetation and deforestation. Our data and models show the effectiveness of public policies and private arrangements to reduce direct conversion from forests to crop production. However, our results also provide evidence that soybean expansion has caused indirect impacts by replacing pasture areas and causing pasture expansion elsewhere. Evidence from our work indicates that Brazil needs broader-ranging land use policies than what was done in the 2010s to be able to reach the land use goals stated in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.

Important features of the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) are not fully understood. We still do not know what determines its dominant decadal variability or the complex physical processes that sustain it. Using reanalysis datasets, we investigated the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the dominant decadal periodicity that characterizes the AMM. Statistical analyses demonstrated that the correlation between the sea surface temperature decadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean and the AMM time series characterizes the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This corroborates previous studies that demonstrated that the AMO precedes the AMM. A causal inference with a newly developed rigorous and quantitative causality analysis indicates that the AMO causes the AMM. To further understand the influence of the subsurface ocean on the AMM, the relationship between the ocean heat content (0300 m) decadal variability and AMM was analyzed. The results show that although there is a significant zero-lag correlation between the ocean heat content in some regions of the North Atlantic (south of Greenland and in the eastern part of the North Atlantic) and the AMM, their cause-effect relationship on decadal time scales is unlikely. By correlating the AMO with the ocean heat content (0300 m) decadal variability, the former precedes the latter; however, the causality analysis shows that the ocean heat content variability drives the AMO, corroborating several studies that point out the dominant role of the ocean heat transport convergence on AMO.

Analyzing the politics and policy implications in Brazil of attributing extreme weather events to climate change, we argue for greater place-based sensitivity in recommendations for how to frame extreme weather events relative to climate change. Identifying geographical limits of current recommendations to emphasize the climate role in such events, we explore Brazilian framings of the two tragic national disasters, as apparent in newspaper coverage of climate change. We find that a variety of contextual factors compel environmental leaders and scientists in Brazil to avoid and discourage highlighting the role of climate change in national extreme events. Against analysts general deficit-finding assumptions, we argue that the Brazilian framing tendency reflects sound strategic, socio-environmental reasoning, and discuss circumstances in which attributing such events to climate changeand, by extension, attribution sciencecan be ineffective for policy action on climate change and other socio-environmental issues in need of public pressure and preventive action. The case study has implications beyond Brazil by begging greater attention to policies and politics in particular places before assuming that attribution science and discursive emphasis on the climate role in extreme events are the most strategic means of achieving climate mitigation and disaster preparedness. Factors at play in Brazil might also structure extreme events attribution politics in other countries, not least some other countries of the global South.

Fire activity has a huge impact on human lives. Different models have been proposed to predict fire activity, which can be classified into global and regional ones. Global fire models focus on longer timescale simulations and can be very complex. Regional fire models concentrate on seasonal forecasting but usually require inputs that are not available in many places. Motivated by the possibility of having a simple, fast, and general model, we propose a seasonal fire prediction methodology based on time series forecasting methods. It consists of dividing the studied area into grid cells and extracting time series of fire counts to fit the forecasting models. We apply these models to estimate the fire season severity (FSS) from each cell, here defined as the sum of the fire counts detected in a season. Experimental results using a global fire detection data set show that the proposed approach can predict FSS with a relatively low error in many regions. The proposed approach is reasonably fast and can be applied on a global scale.

The unpredictable Anthropocene poses the challenge of imagining a radically different, equitable and sustainable world. Looking 100 years ahead is not easy, and especially as millennials, it appears quite bleak. This paper is the outcome of a visioning exercise carried out in a 2-day workshop, attended by 33 young early career professionals under the auspices of IPBES. The process used Nature Futures Framework in an adapted visioning method from the Seeds of Good Anthropocene project. Four groups envisioned more desirable future worlds; where humanity has organised itself, the economy, politics and technology, to achieve improved nature-human well-being. The four visions had differing conceptualisations of this future. However, there were interesting commonalities in their leverage points for transformative change, including an emphasis on community, fundamentally different economic systems based on sharing and technological solutions to foster sustainability and human-nature connectedness. Debates included questioning the possibility of maintaining local biocultural diversity with increased connectivity globally and the prominence of technology for sustainability outcomes. These visions are the first step towards a wider galvanisation of youth visions for a brighter future, which is often missing in the arena where it can be taken seriously, to trigger more transformative pathways towards meeting global goals.

This work analyzed sustainability performance of 26 municipalities in the so-called amazon arch of deforestation in the state of Pang Brazil in the years 2000 and 2010, using the Sustainability Barometer with 31 indicators in social, economic and environmental dimensions. The results show that Altamira and Novo Progresso have intermediate performance in two years and five municipalities progressed to the intermediate level in 2010 while the other remained in a critical situation. There was a slowdown in deforestation in municipalities, but despite the positive results achieved they were unsatisfactory to change the sustainability status of municipalities.

The solar radiation is the primary energy resource for several human activities. Nowadays, the environmental issues and climate concerning are boosting the substitution of fossil fuel resources by renewable energy resources, including the adoption of solar energy for power generation. Although the solar power stands for 0.2% of the Brazilian electricity mix, the solar energy resource in the Northeastern Brazilian region (NEB) is higher than in countries where the solar energy market is already consolidated. Nowadays, it is crucial to deepen the comprehension of solar resource time and spatial variability in NEB to support and promote the solar energy market and save water to other purposes than power generation. The paper presents the data generated by Lima et al. (2019). The database, based on meteorological observations at 129 automated weather stations, provides reliable information on the spatial and seasonal variability of the incoming solar irradiation in NEB.

Here we investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling and the contribution of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations in: 1) Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region, 2) Southwest Atlantic Ocean and 3) Southern Brazil. Numerical simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled ocean-atmosphere model were used to analyze the changes in the seasonal trajectory of the extratropical cyclones, in terms of intensification of physical mechanisms and implications for future scenarios. The numerical experiment for the future scenario considered an atmospheric CO2 concentration of approximately 770 ppm, which represents an increment of more than 350 ppm over the current values recorded by the Mauna Loa reference station. For this scenario, the results indicated a Storm Tracks (ST) displacement of 5˚ latitude toward south and changes of the meridional transport of sensible heat, close to 50˚S. The increase in SST induces ST intensification and consequently an increase in the occurrence of extratropical cyclones. Overall, in the BMC region, we found a change in the pattern of cyclogenetic activity occurrence, with less frequent, but more intense events. On the Southern Brazilian region, the results of this study indicate increases in rainfall during summer months, whereas, a decrease in frequency and an increase in intensity were found for wintertime. We suggest that these changes could impact the climate dynamic of the Brazilian South coast, with a magnitude yet unknown.

Building bridges between environmental and political agendas is essential nowadays in face of the increasing human pressure on natural environments, including wetlands. Wetlands provide critical ecosystem services for humanity and can generate a considerable direct or indirect income to the local communities. To meet many of the sustainable development goals, we need to move our trajectory from the current environmental destructive development to a wiser wetland use. The current article contain a proposed agenda for the Pantanal aiming the improvement of public policy for conservation in the Pantanal, one of the largest, most diverse, and continuous inland wetland in the world. We suggest and discuss a list of 11 essential interfaces between science, policy, and development in region linked to the proposed agenda. We believe that a functional science network can booster the collaborative capability to generate creative ideas and solutions to address the big challenges faced by the Pantanal wetland.