Publicações

Um dos principais desafios apontados para o futuro passa pela redução da dependência de combustíveis fósseis, apostando em um aumento da integração e aproveitamento energético de recursos renováveis. A integração em grande escala de fontes de energia renovável intermitentes nos sistemas elétricos é um grande desafio e já vem sendo enfrentado por países como Alemanha, Espanha, Portugal e Itália. Outros países devem se juntar a estes nos próximos anos, incluindo o Brasil. A energia solar que incide na superfície terrestre varia principalmente devido à presença de nebulosidade, tendo uma grande influência na produção de energia elétrica a partir das tecnologias de aproveitamento do recurso solar. Dado o caráter intermitente da produção de uma central solar, torna-se necessário o desenvolvimento de ferramentas que permitam a integração bem-sucedida destas centrais na rede elétrica e possibilitem apoiar o operador do sistema na tomada de decisões com vista a atenuar o impacto negativo das variações rápidas da produção das centrais solares. Existem duas abordagens básicas para a realização de previsão do recurso solar. Uma delas baseia-se nos modelos numéricos de previsão do tempo (previsão numérica de tempo – PNT). Estes modelos inferem o local da formação da nuvem através de modelagem da dinâmica da atmosfera. A outra abordagem consiste em projetar a posição e o impacto futuro da nebulosidade a partir do movimento estimado das nuvens a partir de observações com uso de satélites ou a partir de instrumentos apropriados instalados em superfície. O presente trabalho tem por meta o desenvolvimento e avaliação de uma metodologia para previsão de irradiação solar na superfície utilizando CMV (modelo de previsão do movimento da nuvem). A proposta visa implantar uma metodologia e reduzir incertezas das estimativas das previsões usando o modelo de transferência radiativa Brasil-SR usando como dados de entrada o algoritmo CMV. 

 The Pantanal region of Brazil is the largest seasonally flooded tropical grassland and, according to local chamber measurements, a substantial CH4 source. CH4 emissions from wetlands have recently become of heightened interest because global atmospheric 13CH4 data indicate they may contribute to the resumption of atmospheric CH4 growth since 2007. We have regularly measured vertical atmospheric profiles for 2 years in the center of the Pantanal with the objectives to obtain an estimate of CH4 emissions using an atmospheric approach, and provide information about flux seasonality and its relation to controlling factors. Boundary layer-free troposphere differences observed in the Pantanal are large compared to other wetlands. Total emissions based on a planetary boundary layer budgeting technique are 2.02.8 TgCH4 yr−1 (maximum flux ∼0.4 gCH4 m−2 d−1) while those based on a Bayesian inversion using an atmospheric transport model are ∼3.3 TgCH4 yr−1. Compared to recent estimates for Amazonia (∼41 ± 3 TgCH4 yr−1, maximum flux ∼0.3 gCH4 m−2 d−1) these emissions are not that large. Our Pantanal data suggest a clear flux seasonality with CH4 being released in large amounts just after water levels begin to rise again after minimum levels have been reached. CH4 emissions decline substantially once the maximum water level has been reached. While predictions with prognostic wetland CH4 emission models agree well with the magnitude of the fluxes, they disagree with the phasing. Our approach shows promise for detecting and understanding longer-term trends in CH4 emissions and the potential for future wetlands CH4 emissions climate feedbacks. 

Geodiversity is a determinant of mining patterns, because its nature defines the interaction with humans, type of exploitation, and, consequently, ecosystem services (ES) of the final landscape. The environmental recovery obligations defined in the legislation serve as a good guidance, but sand mining companies are not always able to finalize their activity entirely and to comply with the laws. To take this into account, the present study was developed with an objective of analyzing the changes observed in the ES after 70 years of sand exploitation in the Paraíba do Sul River Valley, Brazil. The services of the floodplain soil formation and associated components, such as the quality and quantity of water and refuges provided by the riparian forest, are highlighted in this study. To evaluate the different ESs modified by mining, socio-environmental variables were studied, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was applied to assign significance to each variable in the phase of closing activities, thus creating a compound index for ES evaluation at mine closure. The closure conditions were analyzed against the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 8, 9, and 11. The results showed that the companies are small, that they met the legislation in equal criteria of environmental rehabilitation, and that they were induced to a closure standard, reflecting the reforestation with native forest variable, related to the ES of provisioning of habitat to wild fauna. However, the mine facilities variable, associated with the cultural ES of recreation, predominated, because the buildings and access roads were preserved, even though the movable assets were demobilized quickly. It was concluded from the analysis that the scenario of the ES at mine closure is generally linked to geodiversity, company size, and compliance with legal duties. 

 We seek to advance a critical and relational concept of urban water security that theorizes urban processes in relation to the hydro-social dynamics that produce experiences of water securities and insecurities at multiple scales. Our intention is to set out an analytical framework that both examines the social relations that underpin water insecurity and goes beyond the urban as merely the context in which water provision and risk take place. We seek to mobilize this concept to envision meaningful water policies and hydro-social practices to enhance social equity and empowerment for urban communities. 

The relationships between deforestation and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) supply chains are investigated in 532 municipalities throughout the Brazilian Amazon. The NTFP production of acai berry (Euterpe spp.), andiroba (Carapa spp.), Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.), and tonka bean (Dipteryx spp.) has reduced with increasing deforestation rates (p < 0.02). Correlations between the presence of NTFP extractivism and agroforestry systems and increased deforestation ranged between − 22 and − 38%. Forests suffering extractivism activities have decreased mainly in municipalities located in the southern and eastern Brazilian Amazon areas. These decreases are discussed as being associated to forest biomass, fragmentation, edge effect, wildfire, and climate change attributed to deforestation. However, increasing deforestation rates did not influence either cupuassu (Theobroma grandiflorum (Willd. ex Spreng.) K. Schum.) production (p = 0.26) or the presence of raw material processing businesses until 2017 (p = 0.09). The lack of observed associations between deforestation and cupuassu production is linked to NTFP management in agroforestry systems. NTFP flows from less deforested regions to municipalities that house factories for the production of oils, fats, pulp and dehydrated seeds. The productive andiroba and tonka bean chains are highly threatened by deforestation. Without the presence of forest restoration efforts employing agroforestry systems, the social and economic activities of both people and businesses are at risk, and NTFP production and diversity are increasingly reduced by Amazon deforestation.

We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability. 

This paper discusses water security and wellbeing within a public health perspective and focuses on urban areas with high population density. It analyses access to safe water and the multiple challenges to water security in two megacities: São Paulo and London, comparing differences and similarities. It illustrates how water security and health are related to Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6): universal and equitable access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene, and SDG3: healthy lives and well-being for all, focusing on the problem exacerbated by the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, during 2020. 

We report large-scale estimates of Amazonian gap dynamics using a novel approach with large datasets of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), including five multi-temporal and 610 single-date lidar datasets. Specifically, we (1) compared the fixed height and relative height methods for gap delineation and established a relationship between static and dynamic gaps (newly created gaps); (2) explored potential environmental/climate drivers explaining gap occurrence using generalized linear models; and (3) cross-related our findings to mortality estimates from 181 field plots. Our findings suggest that static gaps are significantly correlated to dynamic gaps and can inform about structural changes in the forest canopy. Moreover, the relative height outperformed the fixed height method for gap delineation. Well-defined and consistent spatial patterns of dynamic gaps were found over the Amazon, while also revealing the dynamics of areas never sampled in the field. The predominant pattern indicates 2035% higher gap dynamics at the west and southeast than at the central-east and north. These estimates were notably consistent with field mortality patterns, but they showed 60% lower magnitude likely due to the predominant detection of the broken/uprooted mode of death. While topographic predictors did not explain gap occurrence, the water deficit, soil fertility, forest flooding and degradation were key drivers of gap variability at the regional scale. These findings highlight the importance of lidar in providing opportunities for large-scale gap dynamics and tree mortality monitoring over the Amazon.

The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century.

The side effect of the expansion of agricultural activities in the Brazilian Cerrado resulted in a loss of its native vegetation, biodiversity decline, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent expansion has mainly occurred in the northern Cerrado, a region known as MATOPIBA, which is the latest agricultural frontier in Brazil and is largely cultivated for agricultural commodities. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of Cerrado vegetation and agricultural areas in the Cerrado MATOPIBA (CM) region between 1990 and 2017. Moreover, we analyse the planted area expansion of soybean and other important crops for the region and their productivity, and examine how pasturelands have changed over time. We also present a map of private rural lands and analyse whether they comply with the national Forest Code (FC) regarding in-farm areas of natural vegetation that ought to be preserved by law. Finally, we estimate how much of the current deforestation rates could be avoided in the CM region if the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) or the FC are implemented. Results show a loss of almost 8.4 Mha of the Cerrado vegetation in the study area and an expansion of 4.3 Mha of agricultural lands between 1990 and 2017. Our analysis indicates that soybean planted areas expanded by 326% between 2000 and 2017 and that soybean average productivity increased from 2483 kg/ha in 2000 to2906 kg/ha in 2017. In addition to soybean, other crops also contributed to the agribusiness economy in the CM region, with corn being the crop with the greatest expansion of planted areas over the same period (643,443 ha), and cotton the cultivation with the highest increase in productivity (from 2300 kg/ha to 3822 kg/ha) in these 17 analysed years. Pasturelands expanded from 6.4 Mha in 2000 9.8 Mha in 2017. In 2018, private rural properties consisted of only 7188 large properties and occupied 19.5 Mha, whereas small and medium properties accounted for 136,586 farms and covered a total of only 17.5 Mha. With respect to the national FC, the deficit of preservation areas in the CM region, in relation to the agricultural area of each municipality, totalled almost 1.4 Mha in 2017, with large properties responsible for 57% of this deficit. Looking at the policies and mechanisms to protect the native vegetation of the CM region, we have that 17,219,250 ha can still be deforested on the rural properties in this region; and, if the SoyM was expanded to the Cerrado MATOPIBA region, almost 900,000 ha covered by native vegetation on the categories of farms selected would have been prevented to be converted to soybeans since 2010. The findings from this paper provide a comprehensive understanding of the land use and land cover changes and of the Cerrado deforestation patterns in the CM region for the last decades, and gather information on conservation policies in place to suggest improvements. Several datasets were combined, mainly focus on quantitative analysis, to investigate the geospatial dynamics of natural and agribusiness areas in the study region, and suggest the need to reinforce the preservation of Cerrado native vegetation areas, particularly those that are liable to be legally deforested.

No início do século XX, a urbanização e ocupação de espaços privilegiados em detrimento de espaços de baixada e próximos a várzea. As baixadas foram ocupadas por uma população, em sua maioria, com carências socioeconômicas, formando-se conjuntos de habitações suscetíveis à alagamentos e enchentes. Para trazer reconhecimento de direitos a esses ocupantes, foi realizado um trabalho de regularização fundiária pela Universidade Federal do Pará – UFPA, em conjunto com entes públicos do Estado e da União. O artigo objetiva apresentar e comparar o grau de vulnerabilidade socioambiental da área da gleba C da UFPA no município de Belém, objeto de atividade de regularização fundiária, aplicando indicadores e índices relacionados às questões sociais, econômicas, jurídicas e ambientais. Os resultados mostram que o grau de vulnerabilidade é alto nos anos pesquisados, concluindo que o trabalho de regularização jurídica realizada na área foi apenas patrimonial, a fim de transferir responsabilidades de uso da terra aos moradores beneficiários e de reconhecimento de direito desse título por força de lei. Um trabalho efetivo de regularização fundiária deveria envolver um conjunto de órgãos responsáveis pela área social, ambiental, urbanístico e fundiário para que, de forma concatenada e a longo prazo, realizar os trabalhos necessários para que os resultados sejam captados pelos indicadores e que efetivamente diminuam o grau de vulnerabilidade socioambiental na área estudada.

This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001. N.S.C., A.C.M.P., J.B.C.R, P.M.F. and L.E.O.C.A. thank the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for funding (processes 140379/2018-5, 140877/2018-5, 301597/2020-0, 311103/2015-4 and 305054/2016-3, respectively). A.P.-L. thanks the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP; process 2016/21043-8) for funding. V.H. was supported by a NERC GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L002434/1). D.M.L. acknowledges funding from FAPESP (2015/02537-7) and from the AIMES (Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System) programme. A.A., C.S. and P.B. were funded by Global Wildlife Conservation (grant no. 5282.019-0285) and Climate Land Use Alliance (G-2010-57219). E.B. and J.B. were funded by the UK Research and Innovation (NE/S01084X/1) and the BNP Paribas Foundation (Bioclimate). J.F., E.B. and J.B. thank CNPq for funding (processes 441573/2020-7, 441659/2016-0, 441949/2018-5, and 420254/2018-8). L.O.A. thanks the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI; process SGP-HW 016), the CNPq (processes 441949/2018-5 and 442650/2018-3), and FAPESP (processes 2016/02018-2, 2019/05440-5, and 2018/14423-4) for funding. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This Correspondence presents the personal views of the authors based on their scientific expertise but is not aimed at representing the official positions of their own organizations. Portuguese and Spanish versions of this Correspondence are provided at https://github.com/celsohlsj/ngeo_correspondence.