Publicações

Communities across the United States are continually impacted by natural hazards, leading to material and human losses. Natural Hazard Vulnerability (NHV) assessments can help identify variables that can increase the community’s susceptibility to these losses. Several studies have assessed NHV, but few have accounted for specific losses or considered more than one dimension of vulnerability (typically, social vulnerability is assessed). This study assessed NHV at the county level in the United States, considering five dimensions (social, environmental, institutional, economic, and health) during two years (2000 and 2010) and accounting for damages and casualties. Results provide valuable and generalized insights on how NVH manifests in society. It confirms that NHV should be assessed by particular impact and that it is dynamic: sets of variables associated with heightened losses can change over time and when evaluating distinct impacts (damages and casualties). This study emphasizes the importance of tailoring NHV assessments to specific impacts and underscores the dynamic nature of these assessments, providing valuable insights for both researchers and decision-makers enabling the development of more effective risk-reduction strategies.

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change14. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year−1 in 20102018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 20102018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 20192020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (20152016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 20102018 mean and 20192020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 20192020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.

Soil nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes comprise a significant part of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products but are spatially and temporally variable, due to complex interactions between climate, soil and management variables. This study aimed to identify the main factors that affect N2O emissions under sugarcane, using a multi-site database from field experiments. Greenhouse gas fluxes, soil, climate, and management data were obtained from 13 field trials spanning the 20112017 period. We conducted exploratory, descriptive and inferential data analyses in experiments with varying fertiliser and stillage (vinasse) type and rate, and crop residue rates. The most relevant period of high N2O fluxes was the first 46 days after fertiliser application. The results indicate a strong positive correlation of cumulative N2O with nitrogen (N) fertiliser rate, soil fungi community (18S rRNA gene), soil ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3−); and a moderate negative correlation with amoA genes of ammonia-oxidising archaea (AOA) and soil organic matter content. The regression analysis revealed that easily routinely measured climate and management-related variables explained over 50% of the variation in cumulative N2O emissions, and that additional soil chemical and physical parameters improved the regression fit with an R2 = 0.65. Cross-wavelet analysis indicated significant correlations of N2O fluxes with rainfall and air temperature up to 64 days, associated with temporal lags of 2 to 4 days in some experiments, and presenting a good environmental control over fluxes in general. The nitrogen fertiliser mean emission factors ranged from 0.03 to 1.17% of N applied, with urea and ammonium nitrate plus vinasse producing high emissions, while ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate without vinasse, calcium nitrate, and mitigation alternatives (nitrification inhibitors and timing of vinasse application) producing low N2O-EFs. Measurements from multiple sites spanning several cropping seasons were useful for exploring the influence of environmental and management-related variables on soil N2O emissions in sugarcane production, providing support for global warming mitigation strategies, nitrogen management policies, and increased agricultural input efficiency.

This article addresses the conficts over water use and the appropriation of sanitation sector by new actors, considering the new legal framework and climatic changes context. The analysis was done under the Sustainable Development Goal 6 lens: Ensure access to water and sanitation for all. Brazilian sanitation sector has been afected by constant changes in the legal framework that occurred in the past decade. Knowing that the universalization of public water supply and access to sewage infrastructure was not reached yet, added to this the unequal distribution of water and sanitation according to populations and regions, prevailing the access in urban centers in detriment of communities living in peripheral areas, it is necessary to understand those uses considering the theory of conficts over water uses. Drought events and water governance crisis are added to the problems mentioned and associated to climate Injustice, in a way that make it essential to include climate changes and climate adaptation in the sanitation agenda, so that access to water and sanitation can be guaranteed for all.

This research investigates Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region (RMPA). A 30-year historical analysis using Landsat satellite imagery was made and used to develop LULC scenarios for the next 20 years using a Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) model through an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These maps analyze the urban area’s expansion over the years and project their potential development in the future. This research considered several critical factors influencing urban growth, including shaded relief, slope, distances from main roadways, railway stations, urban centers, and the state capital, Porto Alegre. These spatial variables were incorporated into the model’s learning processes to generate future urbanization scenarios. The LULC historical maps precision showed excellent performance with a Kappa index greater than 88% for the studied years. The results indicate that the urbanization class witnessed an increase of 236.78 km2 between 1990 and 2020. Additionally, it was observed that the primary concentration of urbanized areas since 1990 has predominantly occurred around Porto Alegre and Canoas. Lastly, the future forecasts for LULC changes in 2030 and 2040 indicate that the urban area of the RMPA is projected to reach 1,137.48 km2 and 1,283.62 km2, respectively. In conclusion, based on the observed urban perimeter in 2020, future projections indicate that urban areas are expected to increase by more than 443.29 km2 by 2040. The combination of remote sensing data and Geographic Information System (GIS) enables the monitoring and modeling the metropolitan area expansion. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop more informed and conscientious urban plans, as well as enhance management techniques for urban development.

The demand for water to meet the needs of the population has increased with the rapid growth of urban centers. The urban expansion in Taubaté (23.03º S, 45.55º W) negatively impacts the Una River Basin, a significant tributary of the Paraíba do Sul River, resulting in issues of sedimentation, siltation, and flooding. Systematic monitoring of sediment characteristics in human-influenced areas allows for an understanding of water quality variations, watershed diagnosis, and analysis of impacts on aquatic ecosystems, with total suspended solids (TSS) being a widely used parameter in this context. This study investigated the temporal evolution of the TSS concentration in the Una River, highlighting the importance of sound management practices to reduce sedimentation in urban catchments, through the analysis of biochemical parameters obtained from the Cetesb/Infoaguas platform. From 2008 to 2022, lower TSS concentrations were observed in winter (86.2 ± 35.6 mg L-1), while higher values were obtained in summer (779.7 ± 1024.8 mg L-1). In general, statistically significant correlations were found at the 95% confidence level between TSS and turbidity (Pearson’s r = 0.93), dissolved oxygen (Pearson’s r =-0.46), and electrical conductivity (Pearson’s r =-0.43), while other evaluated parameters (pH, dissolved solids, and precipitation) did not show significant correlations. Among the key findings, it is crucial to study the temporal evolution of TSS and to implement sustainable management strategies in urban catchments, including erosion control measures and stormwater management, to preserve water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and water supply in the urban communities of RMVale.

 Maths anxiety, commonly referred to as “math phobia”, is a challenge in the context of mathematics education in Brazil. While research on the impact of math phobia in the classroom and its direct relationship to learning disabilities is not yet well established, it is widely accepted that math phobia has the potential to increase students’ aversion to the subject. This study explores math phobia by analysing text fragments from the mathematics education literature, using lexicometric analyses with the IRaMuTeQ software and Textual Discursive Analysis (TDA). The results emphasise that math phobia is influenced by various cognitive and emotional factors that have a negative impact on learning. Addressing this issue requires a multidisciplinary approach, with a focus on teacher training to create inclusive and welcoming learning environments. Therefore, investment in teacher training is essential to reduce math phobia and promote equitable, high quality mathematics education in the country.

The RGB color space and two-dimensional red-to-blue band thresholding methods have been widely used for cloud detection throughout history. However, there is a lack of experimental data to assess the nuances of the effectiveness of pixel segmentation techniques in identifying Solar Radiation Enhancement Events (REE). As a result, a study was conducted to correlatesurface solar irradiance and cloud pixels during the occurrence of these events, since there is no systematic description of the use of the HSV code parameter to determine cloud brightness in the literature. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to measure image brightness under different sky conditions by integrating the HSV brightness parameter from histograms. Uneven illumination in full-sky images is the most complicated factor in evaluating cloud brightness, as it varies with camera type, local atmosphere, and solar zenith angle. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm proved effective for the evaluated image set, as satisfactory visual effects were observed under both cloudless and cloudy sky conditions. 

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological DiversityLiving in harmony with natureis that By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefts essential for all people. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of living in harmony with nature have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative refects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifcally, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

This paper investigates the effects of advancing deforestation in the southwestern Amazon on local hydroclimate. For this purpose, a high-resolution mesoscale model, coupled with a land surface model and a hydrologic routing model, is integrated for five years in two experiments, one control without changes in land use and another changing land use annually. During the rainy season, simulated higher precipitation volumes are reduced with the expansion of pasture lands. In the dry periods, mainly in August, there is an increase in precipitation over some deforested areas, which can be associated with mesoscale circulations induced by the heterogeneous surface. In general, land-use changes reduce evapotranspiration and the net radiation at the surface and increase the sensible heat flux during the dry season. In the rainy period, there is an increase in evapotranspiration with the intensification of deforestation, which modifies the other components of energy balance. Results suggest that the impact of LUCC on the local climate is more affected by conditions that generate precipitation extremes (El Niño/La Niña events) than by the abrupt increase in the annual deforestation rate. Land-use changes reduce the streamflow in all sub-basins of Ji-Parana during the dry season. In the rainy season, LUCC increases the streamflow during periods with normal precipitation conditions and La Niña in almost all sub-basins, except in the sub-basin with more than 20% deforestation.

The impact of natural hazards on nations and societies is a global challenge and concern. Worldwide, studies have been conducted within and between countries, to examine the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of fatalities and their impact on societies. In Brazil, no studies have comprehensively identified the fatalities associated with all natural hazards and their specificities by decade, region, sex, age, and other victim characteristics. This study carries out an in-depth analysis of the Brazilian Mortality Data of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, from 1979 to 2019, identifying the natural hazards that kill the most people in Brazil and their particularities. Lightning is the deadliest natural hazard in Brazil during this period, with a gradual decrease in the number of fatalities. The number of hydro-meteorological fatalities increases from 2000 onwards, with the highest number of fatalities occurring between 2010 and 2019. Although Brazil is a tropical country affected by severe droughts, extreme heat has the lowest number of fatalities compared to other natural hazards. The period from December to March has a higher number of fatalities, and the southeast is the most populous region where most people die. The number of male victims is twice as high as the number of female victims, across all ages groups, and unmarried victims are the most likely to die. It is therefore essential to recognize and disseminate the knowledge about the impact of different natural hazards on communities and societies, namely on people and their livelihoods, in order to assess the challenges and identify opportunities for reducing the effects of natural hazards in Brazil.

Esta pesquisa foi realizada nos anos de 2017 e 2018. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho teve como área de estudo a praia de Ponta Negra, sendo este um dos cartões postais mais significante do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, apresentando características físicas, sociais, econômicas e ambientais diversificadas. O objetivo deste, consistiu em valorar os serviços ambientais presentes, considerando a perspectiva dos Gestores e Não Gestores daquele local. A metodologia adotada incluiu levantamentos bibliográficos, produção de resenhas, workshops e palestras, confecção de carta imagem dos serviços ambientais identificados pelos respectivos grupos, trabalhos de campo com aplicação da metodologia de identificação dos serviços ambientais e os níveis de importância de cada um, por meio da cartografia social, assim como os trabalhos de laboratório e de gabinete, para reuniões e confecção dos respectivos mapas temáticos. Por fim, concluímos então que os serviços de regulação foram mais elencados pelos grupos de Gestores, e constatamos que os grupos de Não Gestores conseguiram indicar com precisão a localização dos serviços de provisão, principalmente, pelo fato de vivenciarem a dinâmica cotidiana da praia. Enquanto os grupos Gestores, indicaram mais os serviços de regulação, os quais abrangem todo o recorte espacial da área em estudo.