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In Brazil, most of the disasters involving landslide occur in coastal regions, with population density concentrated on steep slopes. Thus, different approaches have been used to evaluate the landslide risk, although the greatest difficulty is related to the scarcity of spatial data with good quality. In this context, four cities located on the southeast coast of Brazil Santos, Cubatão, Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba in a region with the rough reliefs of the Serra do Mar and with a history of natural disasters were evaluated. Spatial prediction by fuzzy gamma technique was used for the landslide susceptibility mapping, considering environmental variables from data and software in the public domain. To validate the susceptibility mapping results, it was overlapped with risk sectors provided by the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM). A positive correlation was observed between the classes most susceptible and the location of these sectors. The results were also analyzed from the categorization of risk levels provided by CPRM. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indexes were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas and can be replicated to municipalities that do not have risk areas mapped.

Improved forecasts of the timing and location of thunderstorms and associated lightning are of great interest to all persons concerned with protecting life and property. Particularly during the warm season, it is essential the use of highresolution forecast tools to provide a detailed description of the mesoscale weather features, which are frequently responsible by the primary forcing convection. Comparing to the past, the skill of numerical weather prediction has improved enormously, mainly because of substantial increases in computational power and more efficient numerical techniques. Moreover, due to the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere (Lorenz, 1965), considerable efforts are continuously employed for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of the physical processes within the models. However, in terms of the regional models, one complex limitation is the uncertainty with respect the initial and lateral boundary conditions provided by the global models (Warner et al., 1997). The uncertainties associated with the model initialization can decrease the reliability of the deterministic forecasts. Since it is not easy to exactly separate the errors due to the initial conditions from those due to model deficiencies, there has been considerable interest in the investigation of the sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. The present study examines the impact of initializing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) with Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses and forecasts fields of 1 and 0.5- degree grid increment resolutions. Short-range simulations of ten thunderstorm cases were performed with high space WRF model resolution to develop a methodology to qualitatively forecast lightning occurrence with few hours in advance during the summer season in southeastern Brazil. The influence of the same initialization dataset but with different resolutions over the WRF model will be evaluated comparing the lightning forecasting maps for two additional thunderstorm cases, one without lightning occurrence, and calculating statistical scores to help in the forecasting verification.

Observations of upward lightning from tall objects have been reported since 1939. Interest in this subject has grown recently, some of it because of the rapid expansion of wind power generation. Also, with the increasing number of tall buildings and towers, there will be a corresponding increase in the number of upward lightning flashes from these structures. Reports from recent field observations are beginning to address the nature of upward lightning initiation, but much still needs to be learned. Examples are studies of upward lightning from towers in winter thunderstorms in Japan (Wang and Takagi, 2010; and Lu et al., 2009) and summer thunderstorms in Europe (Miki et al., 2005; Flache et al., 2008; and Diendorfer et al., 2009; Zhou et al., 2011) and in North America (Mazur and Ruhnke, 2011; Hussein et al., 2011; Warner, 2011, and Warner et al., 2011). This paper describes a field campaign to study upward lightning for the first time in Brazil. A combination of high-speed video and standard definition video were used to record upward lightning flashes from multiple towers in Sao Paulo, Brazil, a city located in southeastern Brazil with a population over 10 million people, an average elevation of around 800 meters above sea level, and a flash density of 15 flashes/km2/year. Observations made with these assets were analyzed along with BrasilDAT Lightning Detection Network and a lightning mapping array (LMA).

Although scientific literature contains observed characteristics and behavior of upward lightning (e.g., Rakov and Uman, 2003, Ch 6), the integration of highspeed digital cameras into continued research on the topic has allowed for new insight and comparison (e.g., Diendorfer et al., 2003; Flache et al., 2008; Lu et al., 2009; Mazur and Ruhnke, 2011; Wang and Takagi, 2010; Zhou et al., 2011; Hussein et al., 2011; Warner, 2011, and Warner et al., 2011) In this paper, we present characteristics and behaviors of upward positive leaders (UPLs) from 10 tall towers in Rapid City, South Dakota observed using high-speed cameras and other optical sensors along with coordinated electric field instrumentation. All observations were made during the summer thunderstorm season (April September).

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho do modelo WRF, para simulação de ventos à 50 metros, na região de Girau do Ponciano-AL, nos dez primeiros dias de maio de 2008 e os dez primeiros dias de novembro de 2008, período chuvoso e seco, respectivamente na região. Busca-se dessa maneira perceber a sensibilidade do modelo para tais situações.

Brazil suffers yearly with extreme weather and climate events (such as urban floods) which can be exacerbated in a warmer climate. Although several studies analyzed the projections of climate change in this part of the world, little attention has been done in defining the locations that can be most affected, and consequently making the population more vulnerable, in a spatially-explicit form. In this study, a spatial analysis of possible climate impacts and a joint investigation merging these climate impacts with social indicators of vulnerability in the Brazilian territory is performed. The Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) – an index that is able to synthesize the large number of climate model projections available today – is used for the climate analysis, and the “Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index” (SCVI) is proposed to aggregate local population vulnerabilities to the climate change information. Results from RCCI show two major climatic hot-spots emerging in Brazil: one covering a large area comprising nearly entire Northeast and Centre-West regions, and the other one concentrated in western/southern São Paulo state and the Southern region. The SCVI analysis reveals one major socio-climatic hot-spot over Northeast and a few punctual hot-spots occurring over some of the major Brazilian metropolitan regions. The major contributions of this study are (i) a detailed analysis of the RCCI over Brazil and (ii) the development of an index that can combine a large number of climate model information with social vulnerability indicators. Both indices can be important tools for climate and social scientists dialogue, and to communicate climate change to policymakers in a synthetic and socially-relevant form.

O aumento nos índices de poluição decorrentes de processos de origem antrópica, que contribuem para o aumento da concentração de dióxido de carbono (CO2) lançado na atmosfera, resulta, entre outros efeitos, na exarcebação do efeito estufa. Parte desta concentração de CO2 na atmosfera é absorvida pelos oceanos e dissolvida em corpos de água, interferindo no ciclo do carbono. O campus do INPE, em Cachoeira Paulista, contém áreas degradadas, devido principalmente à antiga prática pecuária e incêndios eventuais, ocorridos na região. Como existe um esforço no sentido de iniciar, brevemente, um projeto de recuperação da cobertura vegetal no entorno de um corpo de água da área, foi iniciado um estudo sobre a qualidade das águas desse e de outros corpos de água para possibilitar uma comparação entre as composições antes de após o início da recuperação. Em face dessa problemática, desenvolveu-se um trabalho cujo objetivo foi a caracterização química de alguns corpos de água superficiais no campus do INPE em Cachoeira Paulista, nessa área foram coletadas águas de um reservatório e de um riacho. As amostras foram tratadas e analisadas nas facilidades disponíveis no Laboratório de Aerossóis, Soluções Aquosas e Tecnologias (LAPBio/LAQUATEC). Nessas amostras foi determinada matéria orgânica, por calcinação, a alcalinidade, através da Titulação de Gran, os cátions e ânions maiores, através de cromatografia a líquido de íons, o nitrogênio total (TN), carbono inorgânico (IC) e carbono orgânico total (TOC), com um analisador de carbono. Além disso, esses mesmos procedimentos foram utilizados para caracterizar amostras de água dos poços do campus do INPE em São José dos Campos, para fins comparativos. Comparando o ponto um do Rio com o ponto dois foi observado uma queda do COT de aproximadamente 27%. Isto porque, no ponto um é drenada uma área com mais vegetação do que no ponto dois. No Lago maior e no Lago da administração, houve o mesmo fenômeno ao longo do seu perfil, ou seja, as superfícies obtiveram apresentaram valores maiores do que no fundo dos lagos, esta variação foi de aproximadamente 10,5% e 8%, respectivamente, devido a maior concentração de luminosidades, plâncton e de fotossíntese ocorre nas superfícies. As analises de água subterrânea apresentaram condições normais, mesmo com o alto teor de cálcio e magnésio na caixa dágua um, pois nesta local ocorre a sedimentação.

In the last decade, the rate of population growth in the Amazon floodplains has been increasing and consequently land occupation, combined with fishing and wood over-exploitation. In addition, recent studies suggest that the Amazon hydrological cycle has been intensified since the seventies. Therefore, it is clear that an increase frequency of hydrological extreme, added to an increase explotation of natural resources, are adding an increased pressure over the Amazon floodplains. Brazilian governmental plans, in addition, includes the construction of hydroplants, paving new roads, developing of new waterways for navigation in Amazon tributaries, which might further accelerated those changes in the next decades. Governmental plans do not take into account the potential impacts of global climate changes in all those economic activities. This presentation analysed preliminary results of climate change in some Amazon tributaries produced at INPE. Model outputs suggest major impacts that could certainly jeopardize existent governmental plans.

In the last decades the environmental agenda has percolated in several aspects of Western Societies, establishing as a priority issue in businesses and social decisions worldwide regarding economical developmental and poverty alleviation. Brazilian environmental programs have influenced several aspects of policies, especially in regards to conservation laws and norms. As a changing point, the Rio Summit rearranged research agenda trying to approximate the dialogue of science with social-economic demands. Such awareness had an important impact in the Amazonian development issues, bringing into the spotlight antagonistic views of external development issues with interest in oil, energy and transportation versus dispersed regional and local demands, characterized by a non-organized fashion, but with strong financial support from international agencies. The developmental/ conservationism debate has ever since escalated in the Amazon Region which has been geopolitically reshaped under a framework of conservation units and indigenous territories against a continuum of deforestation on public lands pushed forward by an economic driven agroforestry agenda. Historical human occupation has shaped the rural areas of Amazonia, especially in the last 100 years. Under this temporal scale local human populations can be characterized by its livelihoods and mapped geographically by its adaptation schemes in the different ecosystems, and its climatic aspects. Studies of its importance for local and regional economy has shown as viable strategies under a more eco-friendly economy with strong ties to pinpointed origin products, and more sustainable management schemes. Such pattern defies the large-scale market driven businesses. Complex arrangements and diverse interests have characterized the tropics as a multitude action challenge, despite concerns on ancient political and economic structures which demands nevertheless more inquiry. This study analyzes recent environmental and agroforesty public policies in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazonia, including scales and levels of complexity, and how they may help with regional economic growth.

O estudo avaliou a sensibilidade de duas parametrizações do WRF para radiação solar, parametrização GFDL e RRTM acoplada com Dudhia, na resolução horizontal de 16km e 4km, em localidades com características de altitude e clima diferentes do Ceará. As simulações foram realizadas com o modelo WRF para o mês de setembro de 2009. Utilizou-se os dados observacionais horários de radiação solar provenientes das Plataformas de Coleta de Dados (PCDs) da FUNCEME operando em Itapipoca no norte cearense; Tabuleiro do Norte em Jaguaribe; e Várzea Alegre localizada no Centro-Sul cearense. Os resultados mostraram que o aumento na resolução do modelo, dependendo da localidade e parametrização utilizada, pode apresentar desvantagens para simular a irradiação solar. Ambas parametrizações tendem a superestimar os valores de irradiação solar observada, contudo a parametrização Dudhia se mostrou eficaz em boa parte dos casos. A eficácia das simulações de ambas parametrizações apresentou variabilidade com relação a localidade.