Publicações

The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for sustaining human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vegetation cover remains a challenge. Recently, changes in plant transpiration across the Amazon basin were shown to be associated disproportionately with changes in rainfall, suggesting that even small declines in transpiration (e.g., from deforestation) would lead to much larger declines in rainfall. Here, constraining these findings by the law of mass conservation, we show that in a sufficiently wet atmosphere, forest transpiration can control atmospheric moisture convergence such that increased transpiration enhances atmospheric moisture import and results in water yield. Conversely, in a sufficiently dry atmosphere increased transpiration reduces atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. This previously unrecognized dichotomy can explain the otherwise mixed observations of how water yield responds to re-greening, as we illustrate with examples from China’s Loess Plateau. Our analysis indicates that any additional precipitation recycling due to additional vegetation increases precipitation but decreases local water yield and steady-state runoff. Therefore, in the drier regions/periods and early stages of ecological restoration, the role of vegetation can be confined to precipitation recycling, while once a wetter stage is achieved, additional vegetation enhances atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. Recent analyses indicate that the latter regime dominates the global response of the terrestrial water cycle to re-greening. Evaluating the transition between regimes, and recognizing the potential of vegetation for enhancing moisture convergence, are crucial for characterizing the consequences of deforestation as well as for motivating and guiding ecological restoration.

Subpolar coastal waters are key hotspots in the global carbon cycle. However, the small-scale distribution of partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in these environments and the physical and biological controls underlying this variability are still poorly understood. Here, we examine simultaneous high-resolution spatial measurements of wind speed and pCO(2), temperature, salinity, and in-vivo chlorophyll-a fluorescence (chl-a fluo, a proxy of phytoplankton biomass) in surface waters that were obtained during an oceanographic survey in the Argentinian Beagle Channel (subantarctic Atlantic Patagonian) in early fall 2017. The 240 km study transect (centered at 55 degrees S – 67 degrees W) was divided into two zones: (A1) The Beagle Channel innermost portion, semi-enclosed and subject to strong continental influence and (A2) its eastern outlet towards the open Southwest Atlantic. Discrete seawater samples were also collected for apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), nutrients and pH measurements. High-resolution spatial measurements revealed the persistence of pCO(2) below atmospheric equilibrium, increasing in median (interquartile range 25-75%) from 314 mu atm in the inner Beagle Channel (A1) to 348 mu atm towards the adjacent open sea (A2). A decrease in atmospheric CO2 sequestration was associated with an increase in water temperature from 9.5 degrees C to 10.7 degrees C, salinity from 30.8 to 32.5, and chl-a fluo from 2.24 to 2.91 mg m(-3) along the coastal-offshore gradient. Low AOU and nutrient levels were found in regions inside the channel. Indeed, the relationships between CO2 and temperature or salinity were significantly different from those expected from the theoretical solubility effect, indicating a dominance of metabolic over physicochemical controls on this gas. Moreover, physical factors such as vertical stratification contributed to the variable surface pCO2 values. These findings reveal the existence of short-scale spatial variability of CO2 in the Beagle Channel, improving our understanding of the multiple controls on atmospheric carbon sequestration in extensive subpolar continental shelves.

Green crimes are violations of environmental laws that aim to protect human well-being, natural resources, and ecosystems. Brazil has recorded an increase in green crimes in recent years. In this study, we used Spatial Durbin and other regression models to analyze the relationship between land use and green crime. We test whether there is a positive association between green crimes and the following land uses: urban edge areas, rural edge areas, and mixed urban uses. The results show that green crimes are spatially related to areas of high contact and exposure between human activity and the natural environment (urban and rural mixed uses), but that human presence by itself (presence of industrial activity) is not particularly associated with the occurrence of green crimes. These findings can serve to design and deploy data-driven policies and policing of green crimes.

No Brasil, os municípios de pequeno porte são afetados por impactos de desastres em diferentes níveis, diante de suas distintas características econômicas e sociais. Para a redução de danos materiais e humanos, é necessária uma abordagem que considere múltiplas dimensões de resiliência e adaptação. Nesse contexto, o objetivo da presente tese consistiu em analisar a resiliência comunitária a desastres de municípios de pequeno porte, com alto índice de desenvolvimento humano municipal, e com histórico de desastres relacionados a inundações, enxurradas, alagamentos e deslizamentos de terra. A análise foi conduzida para 213 municípios da região Sudeste, com histórico de desastres. Duas abordagens foram utilizadas: i) a quantitativa, em escala municipal, através de análises estatísticas e a construção de um índice de resiliência comunitária a desastres, que considerou as dimensões social, econômica, infraestrutura, institucional e comunitária; ii) e a qualitativa, em escala intramunicipal, que avaliou os níveis de capital social de populações afetadas por desastres dos municípios de Santos Dumont (MG) e Mongaguá (SP), obtidos por meio de questionário online. Os resultados mostraram que os níveis de resiliência comunitária têm relação direta com o desenvolvimento econômico e urbano dos municípios avaliados. Aqueles que apresentavam os menores valores de resiliência comunitária a desastres estavam associados às características de maior vulnerabilidade da população, como baixo desenvolvimento socioeconômico, domicílios precários, infraestrutura urbana insuficiente para serviços de transporte, saúde, lazer e apoio social; e implementação ineficaz de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento. Os resultados também evidenciaram que a inexistência e a diversidade de espaços de lazer que propiciem conexões sociais, podem gerar a falta de interesse da população em frequentar locais de convivência e participar de grupos de pessoas, ocasionando níveis baixos de capital social. A análise de resiliência comunitária a desastres dos municípios de pequeno porte contribui para delinear medidas de adaptação para diferentes cenários de risco de desastres.

Worldwide, disasters are recognized to be gender sensitive. Women play a vital part of disaster response efforts, developing specific knowledge and skills in contexts of threat, although the prevailing social imbalances and lower socio-economic status influence and make unequal and unfair women’s response and recover to disasters. Despite the singularities found in each disaster situation, referred to the context – significance of the moment, place, and circumstances in which people live – and the typology of hazards, there is no disagreement about the importance of strategies for disaster risk reduction be designed in association with pre-existing social and economic conditions, combined with a need to identify potential human resources and capacities to achieve safer and more resilient spaces. The overall objective of this research project was to identify whether gender inequalities present themselves as a condition of differential impact and capacities to tackle disasters in Brazil, embracing women’s roles as a window of opportunity for new ways of dealing with disasters. The first challenge to be surpassed was to identify who dies from natural hazards in Brazil. Through the analysis of the Brazilian Data Mortality of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, from 1979 to 2019, we examine the distribution of natural hazard fatalities in the national territory, their periodicity, and the number and characteristics of the affected victims. We find out lightning is the deadliest natural hazard in Brazil, but since 2010 there is a sudden increment of hydro-meteorological fatalities as consequence of very few but large-scale disasters. The number of male fatalities is higher for every category of natural hazards, and the single victims dye the most. A deep analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of fatalities of hydro-meteorological disasters in the national territory over different periods reveals that Brazilian large-scale disasters determine Brazilian fatalities standards being January and SH summer the periods with higher number of fatalities. Territorially, the Southeast region is where most of the registered fatalities are concentrated and Rio the Janeiro State with the higher number of fatalities. Seeking to understand gender differential impact and their roles in disaster contexts we develop an intersectional analysis of Brazilian hydro-meteorological disasters from 2000 to 2019 through data mortality disaggregated by sex, age, and race. Social inequalities exist and are gender and race-sensitive in Brazil, and despite the socially constructed disparities between white men and black women, and everyone in between, over the last two decades, women have been more capable of surviving from hydrometeorological hazards. The differences in the number of fatalities between white and non-white male victims are high and unquestionable, but the differences into the Brazilian female group are subtle. This result posed the challenge to identify the factors that make certain people more capable of anticipating, responding to and surviving from disasters. Facing this challenge and in between the COVID-19 pandemic we developed the Sobrevidas©, an online platform accessible by a mobile phone created to collect data and stories from disaster survivors, with no territory frontiers. Through Sobrevidas© we recognized a few and important female victims of the 2011 Rio de Janeiros Serrana Region tragedy acknowledging the potentiality of the tool to access those community-based involved in disaster response, survival, and recover and identify women’s capabilities for a safer condition of living. We live on a planet under pressure where the conversion of ecosystem services, land use, biodiversity loss, planetary thresholds, and food, water, and energy security is at riska changing planet destabilized by human perturbation with chances of no return to its original equilibrium. The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events amplifies the severity of natural hazards and, consequently, the challenges that social systems face, especially for those who already experience vulnerabilities in their daily lives. Through this thesis development, Brazilian women have proven to be more capable to survive of disasters despite all inequalities. Brazilian science, decisionmakers, and society must recognize it and empower womens grassroots initiatives and participation in decision-making on prevention, response, and recovery from disasters in an unequal society threat by global change.

Mudanças climáticas afetam o ciclo hidrológico e influenciam significativamente o uso dos recursos hídricos. O grande número de eventos extremos e a extensão prolongada no espaço e no tempo destes são indicativos de que as mudanças climáticas estão se intensificando nas últimas décadas. Eventos de inundações e secas estão sendo registrados periodicamente, e eventos em que uma seca ocorre após uma inundação ou uma inundação ocorre após uma seca prolongada têm sido mais frequentes. Logo, estudos considerando abordagens distintas sobre secas e inundações podem subestimar o risco de desastres se considerados independentemente. Este estudo investiga os impactos das mudanças climáticas nos eventos extremos de inundações e secas na bacia do Itajaí, considerando o uso de projeções regionais, teste de tendência e índices padronizados. A região do Vale do Itajaí, no estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil, é uma das regiões que se singulariza por desastres relacionados ao clima que causaram grandes perdas econômicas e sociais nos municípios que fazem parte da bacia, porém, nos últimos anos também vêm passando por períodos de estiagens que afetaram a região. Suas atividades econômicas concentram-se no setor agropecuário, o que torna a região suscetível aos impactos de desastres associados, principalmente, aos extremos hidrológicos. O método de avaliação incluiu o cálculo das tendências pelo teste de Mann-Kendall e o estimador de Sens e os índices SPI (Índice Padronizado de Precipitação) e SSFI (Índice Padronizado de Vazão) para o período atual de 1989 a 2020 (32 anos) e para cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas. Foram utilizados dois modelos climáticos globais, HadGEM2-ES e MIROC5, com downscaling pelo Modelo Regional Eta, com 20 km de resolução, para os períodos 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099. Essas projeções adotaram dois cenários de emissão, o RCP 4.5 e o RCP 8.5. No teste de tendência para os dois cenários de RCP 4,5 e 8,5 o ETA/HadGEM2-ES no geral mostrou que a bacia do Itajaí no curto prazo está propícia a eventos mais frequentes de inundações, e no médio-prazo e longo-prazo os eventos de seca poderão ser mais frequentes. O modelo ETA/MIROC5 nos cenários de RCP 4,5 e 8,5, nos três períodos, indicou aumento da precipitação e do escoamento na bacia do Itajaí, ou seja, a região estaria mais propicia a frequência de eventos de inundações. Quando analisados os índices SPI e SSFI os dois modelos ETA/HadGEM2-ES e ET/MIROC5 e nos dois cenários de RCP 4,5 e 8,5 mostraram que nos três períodos, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099, a bacia do Itajaí está propícia a eventos extremos de inundações e secas, comprovado pelos valores do SPI e SSFI acima de 2 e menor que -2, os quais indicam períodos extremamente úmidos e secos, respectivamente. Portanto, as mudanças projetadas para essa região podem desencadear a ocorrência de desastres relacionados a eventos extremos, associados a inundações e secas, e que podem aumentar a vulnerabilidade das pessoas que vivem em áreas de risco. Assim, é imprescindível considerar o clima futuro para a adoção de medidas de mitigação e adaptação aos impactos das mudanças climáticas, bem como para um melhor planejamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos na bacia do Itajaí.

Deforestation disrupts ecosystem services provided by forests at a regional scale, such as surface temperature regulation. This study evaluated how changes in land surface temperature (LST) from 2003 to 2021 across the Brazilian Amazon varied according to the rate of forest cover change and the amount of regional forest cover. To do so, we used LST data from MODIS, land cover data from MapBiomas, and divided the Amazon region into grid cells of 0.5° spatial resolution. We observed a gradual rise in the incidence and intensity of decadal LST warming as the rate of forest loss increased. The influence of deforestation on LST warming was remarkable in areas where the initial forest cover was greater than 40% and forest cover loss was greater than 0.5 percentage points per year on average. Our findings provide supporting information for forest restoration and conservation initiatives aiming for climate change adaptation.

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances (e.g., deforestation and wildfires) in combination with climate change have impacted its carbon cycling. However, uncertainties remain on the magnitude of carbon fluxes associated with human-induced disturbances and the old-growth forest sink, and thus the net land carbon balance of the Amazon. Here we synthesize state-of-the-art estimates of the land carbon flux components in the Amazon. To quantify the human-disturbance fluxes from deforestation, land use and land cover changes and degradation, we use a set of bookkeeping models. The annual intact sink was quantified using a set of 16 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). We then combine the carbon flux estimates from disturbances with the intact sink estimates to provide a bottom-up estimate of the net land carbon flux and compare them alongside top-down estimates from atmospheric model inversions. Between 2010 and 2018, the net land carbon flux in the Brazilian Amazon estimated with the bottom-up approach was -59 (±160) Tg C yr-1 and +36 (±125) Tg C yr-1 with the top-down approach. Despite disagreeing on the sign of the flux, this analysis suggests that the Brazilian Amazon was on average near carbon neutral over the 2010-2018 period, given the large uncertainties underlying both methods. The net land carbon fluxes for the years 2019 and 2020 based on the bottom-up approach were larger than for 2010-2018. This is likely primarily due to direct emissions related to an increase in deforestation although it may possibly be partly caused by a weakening of the forest carbon sink, both in response to deforestation and a warming climate. Spatially, both methodologies agree that the south-eastern Amazon was a net carbon source over the whole study period. These results have important implications for the mitigation potential of Brazilian ecosystems within the goals of the Paris Agreement.

O Programa de Monitoramento da Amazônia e Demais Biomas (PMAZ+) abriga importantes sistemas de monitoramento e mapeamento de mudanças de cobertura da terra no Brasil. No entanto, as metodologias utilizadas e impactos dos resultados do programa ainda são desconhecidos do público geral. O presente artigo objetivou analisar o potencial de Gaia em Jogo como veículo de divulgação do PAMZ+ e também como ferramenta de reflexão dos impactos socioambientais decorrentes de mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra. Essa análise for feita por meio da revisão bibliográfica das publicações de ambos os projetos, partidas preliminares e abstração ad hoc de possíveis situações relacionadas aos temas do PAMZ+ e seus impactos no sistema terrestre. Conclui-se que diversos temas explorados no contexto do PAMZ+ se enquadram na estrutura atual de Gaia em Jogo e podem ser divulgados por meio de um baralho complementar.

A pandemia de COVID-19 acentuou vulnerabilidades em comunidades tradicionais na América Latina. Junto com os desafios que a própria doença instaurou, essas comunidades estão expostas à múltiplas ameaças socioeconômicas e ambientais, que se cruzam e moldam os caminhos de recuperação traçado por cada uma. O projeto Vozes em Recuperação se concentra em compreender e apoiar os caminhos de recuperação de comunidades marginalizadas no Brasil, Colômbia e Peru. Este trabalho é uma primeira iniciativa para identificar ameaças ambientais que acometem cada sítio de estudo escolhido. Foram identificadas múltiplas ameaças ambientais, como mudanças climáticas e incêndios florestais. O processo de tomada de decisão em torno da recuperação sustentável dessas comunidades pode ser mais eficaz, uma vez que essas ameaças e vulnerabilidades sejam diagnosticadas e melhor compreendidas.

The Amazon is the largest rainforest on the planet and was an important carbon sink. The carbon sink is declining, mainly due to an increase in tree mortality as a result of deforestation, degradation, and local, regional and global climate change. In addition, deforestation and forest degradation reduce the ability of the Amazon rainforest to act as a carbon sink. CO2 Vertical Profiles (VP) were performed from 2010 to 2021 (805), using small aircraft at 4 locations: SAN (2.86° S 54.95° W), ALF (8.80° S 56.75° W), RBA (9.38° S 67.62° W) and from 2010 to 2012 on TAB (5.96° S 70.06° W) and since 2013 at TEF (3.39° S 65.55° W). The question if Amazonia is a carbon source or sink is an important role in the global carbon budget. Amazonia vertical profile annual mean derived from CO2 annual mean vertical profiles (VP subtracted from the background concentration: ∆VP) from the 4 studied sites can help to clarify this important question. The sampling frequency was approximately 2 times per month in each location, from 4.4 km height (a.s.l.) until near surface 300 m (a.s.l.), and usually carried out between 12:00 and 13:00 local time. The CO2 samples were analyzed at INPE’s LaGEE (Greenhouse Gas Laboratory), in São Jose dos Campos. This result is a direct indication of the regional source in the global carbon budget, indeed there are well-known discrepancies from many studies using different methodologies (bottom-up, top-down techniques, and a wide variety of global, regional, and inversion models). In this study, we will present Carbon flux from the time series for the 4 sites and Amazon Carbon balance using the column budget technique, and analyze the correlations with various parameters related to climate, vegetation, deforestation, and biomass burning.