Publicações

The Integrated Land Surface model (INLAND) land surface model, in offline mode, was 25 adjusted and forced with prescribed climate to represent two contrasting environments along a 26 topographic gradient in a central Amazon Terra Firme forest, which is distinguished by well- 27 drained, flat plateaus and poorly drained, broad river valleys. To correctly simulate the valley 28 area, a lumped unconfined aquifer model was included in the INLAND model to represent the 29 water table dynamics and results show reasonable agreement with observations. Field data 30 from both areas are used to evaluate the model simulations of energy, water and carbon 31 fluxes. The model is able to characterize with good accuracy the main differences that appear 32 in the seasonal energy and carbon partitioning of plateau and valley fluxes, which are related 33 to features of the vegetation associated with soils and topography. The simulated latent heat 34 flux (LE) and net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), for example, are higher on the 35 plateau area while at the bottom of the valley the sensible heat flux (H) is noticeably higher 36 than at the plateau, in agreement with observed data. Differences in simulated hydrological 37 fluxes are also linked to the topography, showing a higher surface runoff (R) and lower 38 evapotranspiration (ET) in the valley area. The different behavior of the fluxes on both annual and diurnal time scales confirms the benefit of a tiling mechanism in the presence of large 40 contrast and the importance to incorporate subgrid-scale variability by including relief 41 attributes of topography, soil and vegetation to better representing Terra Firme forests in 42 land surface models.

Understanding how Amazonian rainforests deal with extended droughts is critical in the face of changing climate. This research analyze the physical properties and the soil water dynamics of a deep soil profile in an area of primary forest in central Amazonia to elucidate these processes under drought and nondrought conditions. Physical soil properties derived from soil cores exhibited a distinctive layer between 480 and 880cm deep, characterized by higher microporosity and low plant water availability. In situ soil moisture measurements collected during the period from January 2003 through February 2006 and for depths ranging from 10 to 1,430cm suggest that, in the study site, the top 480cm of the soil profile satisfied most of the transpirational demands in normal climatological years. However, during exceptionally dry periods, such as the 2005 drought, root uptake occurs below 480cm. As concluded by previous studies, most of the uptake is concentrated in the first meter of the soil profile: More than 40% of the total demand for transpiration is supplied by the top meter of soil. Because deep root uptake occurred at greater depths than normal during the 2005 drought, our results suggest that this is a fundamental mechanism to cope with prolonged droughts.

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Dietary guidelines urge Brazilians to increase their consumption of raw vegetables. Yet key issues must be tackled by the government and civil society, not only to foster consumers’ appetite for healthier food, but more importantly to diminish the gaps between local demand and production, determined by food and land accessibility. We examine whether vegetable production in Brazil meets the demand to provide Brazilians the daily amount of fresh food recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).We developed demand scenarios in Brazil for 2008 and 2030, based on demand density maps built at the district level using production census surveys, household acquisition data, and population growth estimates. Results reveal an inherent inequality in vegetable consumption between the southern and central northern regions of Brazil that follows food insecurity regional indicators. Even in more urbanized regions and metropolitan areas, where the best balance between vegetable production and acquisition is found, simulated demand is far fromWHOrecommendations. A complementary discussion regarding land distribution and fresh food production supports our outlook on the weaknesses of existing rural policies for land reform and sustainable local fresh food production that directly affect demand and nutritional security. This work was the foundation to the Delivering Food Security on Limited Land (DEVIL) project in Brazil supported by Belmont Forum consortium.

Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40400 km from a cyclone’s center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by local processes alone but requires imported moisture. Nonetheless, the dynamics of this imported moisture appears unknown. Here, considering a region up to three thousand kilometers from cyclone center, we analyze precipitation, atmospheric moisture and movement velocities for severe tropical cyclones North Atlantic hurricanes. Our findings indicate that even over such large areas a hurricane’s rainfall cannot be accounted for by concurrent evaporation. We propose instead that a hurricane consumes pre-existing atmospheric water vapor as it moves. The propagation velocity of the cyclone, i.e. the difference between its movement velocity and the mean velocity of the surrounding air (steering flow), determines the water vapor budget. Water vapor available to the hurricane through its movement makes the hurricane self-sufficient at about 700 km from the hurricane center obviating the need to concentrate moisture from greater distances. Such hurricanes leave a dry wake, whereby rainfall is suppressed by up to 40% compared to the local long-term mean. The inner radius of this dry footprint approximately coincides with the hurricane’s radius of water self-sufficiency. We discuss how Carnot efficiency considerations do not constrain the power of such open systems. Our findings emphasize the incompletely understood role and importance of atmospheric moisture stocks and dynamics in the behavior of severe tropical cyclones.

Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species’ fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. 2. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world’s worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population’s niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. 3. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. 4. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. 5. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and morphological characteristics of this species, coupled with behavioural thermoregulation.

Este estudo presta-se à detecção de conglomerados espaciais (clusters) que representem fontes e sumidouros da malária. O estudo foi aplicado ao Município de Manaus (AM) e o método utilizado foi o da Estatística Scan, também conhecido como varredura espacial de Kulldorff. Dados epidemiológicos referentes ao ano de 2011 foram utilizados, 14.282 novos casos de malária, atribuídos a um conjunto de 831 Localidades devidamente georreferenciadas, foram analisados. Os casos foram tabulados conforme Local provável da infecção cli, Local de residência clr, importados ci e exportados ce. Para gerar clusters fonte foi utilizada a probabilidade ce/cli, enquanto que para sumidouro ci/clr. O método gerou três cluster com significância acima de 99,99%, dois do tipo fonte e um do tipo sumidouro. ABSTRACT: – This study aims to the detection of spatial clusters that represent malaria sources and sinks. The analysis was applied to the Manaus Municipality (Brazil) and the method used was the Scan Statistical, also called Kulldorff space sweep. Epidemiological data of 2011 were used, 14,282 new malaria cases attributed to a set of 831 geo-referenced Localities were analyzed. This cases were tabulated according to Local of probable infection cli, Local of residence clr, imported ci, and exported ce. To generate source clusters was used the probability “ce/cli”, while for sink “ci/clr”. The method generated three cluster with significance above 99.99%, two source and one sink.

O sistema DELTA é um sistema de amostragem atmosférica de longo prazo para gases e aerossóis que utiliza tubos adsorventes (denuderes) de vidro, revestidos com soluções adsorventes para a captura dos gases, e filtros, revestidos com soluções reagentes para captura de aerossóis. O sistema de bombeamento é inserido, externamente, após a sequência de denuderes e filtros, sendo composto por uma micro bomba de vácuo em conjunto com um rotâmetro, que permite bombear com um fluxo constante entre 0,3 a 0,4 L.min-1 e um medidor de volume que registra o volume de ar. As fontes de energia para o funcionamento do sistema podem ser de três formas diferentes: um dispositivo eólico, bateria acoplada ao painel solar ou energia elétrica. Como a energia elétrica nem sempre está disponível em campo, optou-se neste trabalho, em utilizar painéis solares como fonte de energia. No caso de possuir eletricidade no local, será descrito também, como alimentar o sistema utilizando energia elétrica.

O objetivo da participação nesse programa internacional de Inter calibração, além da busca por resultados confiáveis e de qualidade, é a inserção e credenciamento do Laboratório de Pesquisa em Biogeoquímica Ambiental (LAPBIO), do Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terrestre (CCST), do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) na comunidade internacional. Todos os procedimentos de preparação e análises são realizados no Laboratório de Aerossóis, Soluções Aquosas e Tecnologias (LAQUATEC), que é a infraestrutura onde são realizadas análises químicas e físico-químicas de amostras ambientais por via úmida. As análises por ICP-OES são realizadas no Laboratório de Combustão e Propulsão localizado no INPE em Cachoeira Paulista. Este relatório tem como meta relatar os resultados obtidos dentro desses estudos, realizando uma análise crítica dos mesmos.

This communication aims to disseminate a set of hydrochemical data obtained from two small catchments in the Atlantic Forest domain. Such data refers to the chemical composition of rainwater, throughfall water and river water from two catchments: one within an urban area, collected between 1999 and 2001, and the other within a forest area, collected between 2000 and 2004. The former is State Park of Fontes do Ipiranga (PEFI), a quadrangle delimited by parallels 23º40’20.4″ S, 23º38’11” S, and meridians 46º36’38” W, 46º37’58” W. The latter is State Park of Serra do Mar, Núcleo Cunha-Indaiá (CUNHA) within parallels 23o13’28” and 23o16’10” S, and meridians 45o02’53” and 45o05’15” W. The datasets concerns the content of the main cations and anions, as well as pH and alkalinity of rainfall, throughfall and stream water.

Este relatório apresenta a metodologia de coleta de dados e a descrição inicial dos resultados obtidos no trabalho de campo com comunidades de terra firme na região do Distrito Florestal Sustentável da BR-163, sudoeste do Pará. Realizado no período de 06 a 26 de setembro de 2013, esse trabalho complementa e reproduz parcialmente os levantamentos de campo realizados nas comunidades ribeirinhas do Tapajós e Arapiuns em 2009 e 2012, respectivamente. A área de estudo apresenta diferentes tipos de ocupação e contextos como a presença de Unidades de Conservação, Projetos de Assentamento, áreas de garimpo, de agricultura familiar, de pecuária e de produção de grãos. Três percursos foram percorridos: de Itaituba a Uruará pela Transamazônica; de Itaituba a Novo Progresso pela BR-163 e Transgarimpeira; e a região de Santarém, Belterra e Mojuí dos Campos. A partir de entrevistas com informantes chaves e questionários semiestruturados 55 comunidades foram inventariadas. Foram abordadas questões relacionadas às características sociodemográficas, infraestrutura, saúde e educação, uso da terra e uso de recursos florestais. Foram realizados descrições e registros fotográficos sobre a infraestrutura das localidades. As comunidades e sedes dos municípios foram também mapeadas com dados de sensoriamento remoto e caracterizadas quanto aos seus limites e organização espacial interna. Para avaliar o refinamento do TerraClass 2010, foram avaliados pontos em campo referentes à classe urbana, observando-se confusões da ordem de 2% no mapeamento e imprecisão no limite dos polígonos. Os resultados indicam diferenças das comunidades visitadas de acordo com o contexto geográfico e com o histórico de formação. De modo geral, as comunidades distantes das estradas principais e das sedes dos municípios apresentam infraestrutura e serviços mais precários do que as que estão próximas às cidades e estradas, e assim estabelecem uma relação de dependência mais forte com outros núcleos populacionais e cidades. O aumento da escolaridade e a procura por emprego são fatores que influenciam a mobilidade da população, bem como atividades de melhoria de infraestrutura como a construção de hidrelétricas, pavimentação da BR-163 e atividades mineração. As mudanças no uso da terra, como o plantio mecanizado de grãos e o avanço da pecuária no sul do estado, produzem efeitos nos regimes de terras, na economia e na mobilidade. A análise específica dos diferentes aspectos levantados no campo será realizada em pesquisas posteriores. Os resultados desse trabalho serão comparados com os dados obtidos para as comunidades ribeirinhas, contribuindo para o melhor entendimento das relações de conectividade das localidades e estudos das redes urbanas do sudoeste paraense.