Publicações

One of the clear signals of the ongoing climate change is sea level rise (SLR). Normal oceanic tides superimposed on a rising sea level and coastal flooding will affect many coastal communities. An international collaboration among Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to sea level rise given the historical constraints imposed by administrative and institutional structures. This project focused on the processes that shape adaptation of three coastal communities in three countries. It worked jointly with these communities in defining the problem, examining risks, and understanding the benefits and obstacles that may hinder implementation of adaptation options. The framework was co-designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from the three countries, including local government officials. The study addressed 1) evaluation of adaptive capacity through participant surveys and 2) physical and cost impact simulations using geospatial models of the built infrastructure and implementation of adaptation options under different hazard scenarios, including 50 and 100-year sea level rise projections and severe storms. Based on the surveys results, there is a clear sense of the awareness of each community of the risk of floods due to intense storms, and of the usefulness of engaging early in a process that promotes the understanding of risks, impacts, and costs. A majority of workshop participants prioritized pursuing physical and green infrastructure actions now or within coming years or decades. A positive common aspect of the three sites was the commitment shown by the stakeholders in taking part in the process and evaluating which adaptation measures could be more effective in their cities. While in the US and UK structural solutions and voluntary buyouts were prioritized for the future, Brazil prioritized structural solutions and ecosystems restoration and not voluntary buyouts. All of these are choices to increase resiliency against sea level rise that have a high benefit-cost ratio. The Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) results illustrate barriers to adaptation action, including technical, economic and political issues that reveal inequalities in adaptive capacity among case studies.

The pattern and size of the Earths atmospheric circulation cells determine regional climates and challenge theorists. Here the authors present a theoretical framework that relates the size of meridional cells to the kinetic energy generation within them. Circulation cells are considered as heat engines (or heat pumps) driven by surface gradients of pressure and temperature. This approach allows an analytical assessment of kinetic energy generation in the meridional cells from the known values of surface pressure and temperature differences across the cell, and . Two major patterns emerge. First, the authors find that kinetic energy generation in the upper and lower atmosphere respond in contrasting ways to surface temperature: with growing , kinetic energy generation increases in the upper atmosphere but declines in the lower. A requirement that kinetic energy generation must be positive in the lower atmosphere can limit the poleward cell extension of the Hadley cells via a relationship between and . The limited extent of the Hadley cells necessitates the appearance of heat pumps (Ferrel cells) circulation cells with negative work output. These cells consume the positive work output of the Hadley cells (heat engines) and can in theory drive the global efficiency of an axisymmetric atmospheric circulation down to zero. Second, the authors show that, within a cell, kinetic energy generation is largely determined by in the upper atmosphere, and by in the lower. By absolute magnitude, the temperature contribution is about 10 times larger. However, since the heat pumps act as sinks of kinetic energy in the upper atmosphere, the net kinetic energy generation in the upper atmosphere, as well as the net impact of surface temperature, is reduced. The authors use NCAR/NCEP and MERRA data to verify the obtained theoretical relationships. These observations confirm considerable cancellation between the temperature-related sources and sinks of kinetic energy in the upper atmosphere. Both the theoretical approach and observations highlight a major contribution from surface pressure gradients, rather than temperature, in the kinetic energy budget of meridional circulation. The findings urge increased attention to surface pressure gradients as determinants of the meridional circulation patterns.

The power of atmospheric circulation is a key measure of the Earths climate system. The mismatch between predictions and observations under a warming climate calls for a reassessment of how atmospheric power W is defined, estimated and constrained. Here we review published formulations for W and show how they differ when applied to a moist atmosphere. Three factors, a non-zero source/sink in the continuity equation, the difference between velocities of gaseous air and condensate, and interaction between the gas and condensate modifying the equations of motion, affect the formulation of W. Starting from the thermodynamic definition of mechanical work, we derive an expression for W from an explicit consideration of the equations of motion and continuity. Our analyses clarify how some past formulations are incomplete or invalid. Three caveats are identified. First, W critically depends on the boundary condition for gaseous air velocity at the Earths surface. Second, confusion between gaseous air velocity and mean velocity of air and condensate in the expression for W results in gross errors despite the observed magnitudes of these velocities are very close. Third, W expressed in terms of measurable atmospheric parameters, air pressure and velocity, is scale-specific; this must be taken into account when adding contributions to W from different processes. We further present a formulation of the atmospheric power budget, which distinguishes three components of W: the kinetic power associated with horizontal pressure gradients (WK), the gravitational power of precipitation (WP ) and the condensate loading (Wc). This formulation is valid with an accuracy of the squared ratio of the vertical to horizontal air velocities. Unlike previous approaches, it allows evaluation of WP + Wc without knowledge of atmospheric moisture or precipitation. This formulation also highlights that WP and Wc are the least certain terms in the power budget as they depend on vertical velocity; WK depending on horizontal velocity is more robust. We use MERRA and NCAR/NCEP re-analyses to evaluate the atmospheric power budget at different scales. Estimates of WK are found to be consistent across the re-analyses, while estimates for W and WP drastically differ. We then estimate independent precipitation-based values of WP and discuss how such estimates could reduce uncertainties. Our analyses indicate that WK increases with temporal resolution approaching our theoretical estimate for condensation-induced circulation when all convective motion is resolved. Implications of these findings for constraining global atmospheric power are discussed.

How phase transitions affect the motion of moist atmospheric air remains controversial. In the early 2000s two distinct differential equations of motion were proposed. Besides their contrasting formulations for the acceleration of condensate, the equations differ concerning the presence/absence of a term equal to the rate of phase transitions multiplied by the difference in velocity between condensate and air. This term was interpreted in the literature as the reactive motion associated with condensation. The reasoning behind this reactive motion was that when water vapor condenses and droplets begin to fall the remaining gas must move upward to conserve momentum. Here we show that the two contrasting formulations imply distinct assumptions about how gaseous air and condensate particles interact. We show that these assumptions cannot be simultaneously applicable to condensation and evaporation. Reactive motion leading to an upward acceleration of air during condensation does not exist. The reactive motion term can be justified for evaporation only; it describes the downward acceleration of air. We emphasize the difference between the equations of motion (i.e., equations constraining velocity) and those constraining momentum (i.e., equations of motion and continuity combined). We show that owing to the imprecise nature of the continuity equations, consideration of total momentum can be misleading and that this led to the reactive motion controversy. Finally, we provide a revised and generally applicable equation for the motion of moist air.

Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia para obtenção de dados de irradiação solar incidente na superfície da região Norte do Brasil utilizando o modelo numérico regional de mesoescala BRAMS em conjunto com uma técnica de remoção de viés. Este tipo de solução se faz necessário em virtude dos erros sistemáticos inerentes às simulações, ocasionados, por exemplo, pela dificuldade na representação da variabilidade da cobertura de nuvens. A técnica estatística de remoção de viés foi desenvolvida utilizando dados observacionais de irradiação solar de estações meteorológicas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) operando na área de estudo ao longo do ano de 2009. Verificou-se que o modelo BRAMS é capaz de reproduzir satisfatoriamente os ciclos mensais e diários da irradiação solar, mas existe uma clara tendência de superestimar os valores em relação aos dados observados. A validação com dados de superfície mostrou que a técnica estatística de remoção do viés conseguiu reduzir significativamente estes erros, aproximando os valores simulados daqueles observados em superfície.

The aim of this paper is using TerraME framework to develop a model that contributes in understanding the spatiotemporal behaviour of dengue transmission and the strength of control strategies. During the implementation of our model, it was necessary to adopt rules and input parameters, which represent potential determinants factors for dynamic transmission of dengue fever. The use of these rules allows simulating scenarios of epidemics in the absence and in the presence of dengue transmission control measures.

Próximo de completar uma década de atividades, o projeto Apoio técnico às atividades de extração de matéria-prima executadas pela indústria oleira da região de Rio Claro realizou, recentemente, o estudo da viabilidade do uso da nucleação como auxílio na elaboração do projeto de recuperação de uma área de preservação permanente de nascente. O resultado obtido durante esta etapa do projeto é o objetivo deste artigo, para tal será apresentada a proposta de recuperação desta área degradada que considerou etapas de caracterização da área, de monitoramento da regeneração natural, de implantação da técnica de transposição de solo e serrapilheira e de monitoramento desta técnica. Durante a caracterização, foram analisados os pré-requisitos à implantação das técnicas de nucleação. Depois de confirmada a viabilidade da implantação das técnicas de nucleação, foi escolhida a técnica de transposição de solo e serrapilheira para ser implantada e monitorada. O monitoramento ocorreu por cinco meses, após este período, foi possível observar a regeneração natural ocorrendo na área de preservação da nascente em estudo, além de indicativos de intensa atividade biológica na parcela transplantada.

Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem that has adversely affected the worlds food production through the reduction of land productivity and water availability. The present study estimated annual soil loss rate and its spatial distribution in the most important Brazils agricultural region, the Brazilian Cerrado, using Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model into Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. For this purpose, the soil erosion annual rate was determined in function of RUSLE model factors: rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), topography (LS), crop management (C) and supporting conservation practice (P). All factors were obtained from literature. They were processed and integrated into a GIS, resulting in a map of annual soil loss rate. The methodology applied showed acceptable precision and it was possible to identify the most susceptible areas to water erosion. The average estimated rate of soil loss for the entire Cerrado was 12.8 t∙ha−1 ∙yr−1 . Large part of the Cerrado is under low soil loss zone corresponding to 79.91% of total surface area, while 15.70%, 3.74%, and 0.66% are under moderate, high, and very high, respectively. The average estimated rate of soil loss in areas used for silviculture was 52.1 t∙ha−1 ∙yr−1 . In semi-perennial, perennial, and annual crops cultivation were 29.3, 23.9, and 9.8 t∙ha−1 ∙yr−1 , respectively, while in the pasture was 13.3 t∙ha−1 ∙yr−1 . Except for annual crops, all farm and silviculture areas showed average soil loss ranging from moderate to high rate. These results suggest that the implementation of more effective management techniques and conservation practices are necessary for the Cerrado to maintain and to improve land productivity by ensuring national and international food demands.

The present study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the physical properties of the soil and relief in areas that are susceptible to landslides in the sub-basin of the Córrego do Yung, a creek in the urban district Três Moinhos of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. Depth measurements of the solum were made at the soil sampling points, and the subsurface material was collected and analyzed for the two factors of particle size and type of horizon. In the laboratory, we determined the hydraulic conductivity, bulk and particle density, and total porosity, macroporosity and microporosity. The values of the physical properties throughout the sub-basin were predicted and mapped. Thematic maps were generated and showed a relation to each other: the clay was related to a higher hydraulic conductivity, higher porosity and lower soil density. In the steeper areas, the greater silt contents were mapped in the deeper layers and indicated the thin thickness of horizon B in these areas. A close relation of the curvature with the soil thickness was detected and was greater in the flat areas with less slope. The geostatistical analysis showed that the range of values for the properties of macroporosity, microporosity and silt was the lowest in the deeper layers, indicating low structural continuity in potentially erodible areas.

Nos últimos anos os desastres naturais tais como os deslizamentos de terra em áreas urbanas e em rodovias têm se intensificado e provocado mortes e grandes prejuízos materiais no Brasil, neste contexto, o objetivo do trabalho foi analisar a relação entre a ocorrência de deslizamentos em Juiz de Fora e a pluviometria diária do município, bem como a partir da base de dados da Prefeitura/Defesa Civil, analisar a relação dos atributos do terreno do município com a legislação de uso e ocupação do solo, a fim de discutir a restrição de uso quanto à declividade. As variáveis de terreno empregadas neste estudo foram obtidas pelo modelo digital de elevação (MDE), tendo como base uma planta topográfica plani-altimétrica. Foram utilizados os pontos e polígonos de áreas de risco mapeados pela Defesa Civil. Analisou-se as áreas de risco em relação aos atributos do relevo, discutidos com base na lei de uso e ocupação do solo, que define que terrenos com declividade acima de 30% tem uso restrito. Os dados de pluviosidade foram correlacionados com os dias de ocorrência de deslizamentos. Os resultados apontaram a existência de 222 pontos como áreas de risco. Da sobreposição desses pontos com a declividade, obteve-se a relação entre áreas de riscos e relevo. De acordo com a lei municipal, 124 pontos estariam em áreas iguais ou acima de 30% de declividade, totalizando 56% das áreas de risco da região urbana. Apesar de vários bairros apresentarem declividades acima de 30%, as áreas de risco estão relacionadas às ocupações de baixo padrão social. Verificou-se 74% de probabilidade de deslizamento a partir de dados acumulados de chuva de 10 dias, para a precipitação igual ou acima de 150 mm, e 67% de probabilidade de deslizamentos em 15 dias de observações, para chuva igual ou acima de 200 mm. As equações obtidas nas funções lineares podem ser utilizadas pela defesa civil para enviar alerta de deslizamentos. ABSTRACT: In recent years, natural disasters such as landslides in urban areas and on highways have intensified and caused deaths and great material damages in Brazil, in this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between the occurrence of landslides in Juiz de Fora and daily rainfall of the municipality, as well as from the database of the City Hall / Civil Defense, analyzing the relationship of attributes of the relief of the municipality with the legislation of land use and occupation, in order to discuss the restriction of use when To declivity. it was based on the topographic planialtimetric map. It was used points and polygons risk areas mapped by the Civil Defense. It was performed spatial analysis of risk areas regarding to relief attributes, discussed based on occupation law, which define that land above 30% slope has restricted use. It was also analyzed daily rainfall correlated with the days of the landslides. The results indicate 222 points mapped as risk areas. By overlaying these points with the slope map, it was obtained the relationship between risk areas and relief. According to municipal law, 124 points were in the same or above 30% slope areas, totaling 56% of the urban region risk areas. It was observed that although several neighborhoods present many areas with slopes above 30%, the risk areas are always related to low social status occupations. It is 74% likely to slip from the cumulative rainfall data from 10 days to precipitation above 150 mm, and 67% probability of slips in 15-day observations for rain greater than 200 mm. In conclusion, the accumulated data were representative and the equations obtained in the linear functions can be used for civil defense warning slips, based on previous records.

During the austral summer of 2014 and 2015, a severe drought occurred in southeastern Brazil at the same time when flooding conditions were registered in the state of Acre in the western Amazonia of Brazil. This study aimed the identification of the atmospheric and oceanic large-scale characteristics and regional features associated with these conditions, and verification of the Center of Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/National Institute of Space Research (CPTEC/INPE) atmospheric global circulation model ability in reproducing the observed features. The state of Acre was chosen as a pilot area of the PULSE-Brazil project – a web platform tool that contains climate, ecological and health data for Brazil. The observational data and model results were analysed for the climatological period of 1981-2010. Correlation analyses between precipitation over west Amazon and atmospheric and oceanic variables indicated the main patterns in both data sets. Extreme wet and dry Januaries over west Amazon were selected to explore the regional and large-scale associated features. The general results of climate analyses indicated an opposite relation of precipitation between western Amazon and southeastern Brazil, in January, besides the typical precipitation dipole between the south Atlantic convergence zone and southeastern South America. This configuration is related to anomalous humidity flux at low levels and associated anomalous sea level pressure over southeastern South America induced by subsidence. The role of convection anomalies over the Pacific Ocean on South America anomalies is discussed. The wet and dry cases in Acre region display opposite atmospheric anomalies over South America that are linked to wavetrains over the Pacific Ocean, likely related to the opposite conditions of Indonesia-Pacific tropical convection. Similar patterns of the dry cases were observed during January of 2014 and 2015. The model reproduced some observed atmospheric patterns related to precipitation extremes and the results are discussed in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability.