Despite current state-of-the art global climate model (GCMs) ability to simulate well the large scale state of the global climate, there is significant variation in future climate projections of precipitation and temperature changes in South America. In order to adequately assess the possible impacts and national vulnerabilities of climate changes, full consideration of these variations in projections is of vital importance. As a starting point for this, here we use a large ensemble of simulations with the HadCM3 climate model, where each ensemble member incorporates different but plausible versions of the parameterisations of important physical processes, is used to assess the potential impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature over South America and explore the uncertainties associated with the various model parameterisations. Particular attention is paid to the general seasonal characteristics, for example the South Atlantic Convergence Zone which modulates summer rainfall over most of the continent. The changes simulated with the Eta regional model forced with of these GCM ensemble members are also reported.
Redes Sociais